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  • ESPN's Scouts Inc. 1st Mock Draft

    Wednesday, December 21, 2011
    QBs, early-entries dot early mock

    By Todd McShay
    ESPN.com


    College bowl season is in full swing and early-entry players have begun declaring for the 2012 NFL draft, and plenty of teams are out of the playoffs and beginning draft preparations, so what better time to offer up my initial first-round projection for 2012?

    The order below represents the current inverted NFL standings, with the league's strength-of-schedule tiebreaker determining the order for teams with the same record (teams with the lower opponent winning percentage get the worse pick).

    Much can and will change as the playoff field is set and postseason results shuffle the lower part of the board, but this early look offers some perspective on where prospects might land given what we know at this point.

    The board is split evenly, with 16 players each from the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, but three quarterbacks and seven offensive players overall are in the top 10.

    The SEC leads the way with 10 prospects in this projection, followed by the Pac-12, ACC and Big 12 with six each. Among individual schools, Alabama is tops with four players on the list (all in the top 15), while Stanford (3), USC (2), Baylor (2), North Carolina (2), South Carolina (2), Oklahoma (2) and Mississippi State (2) also contribute multiple prospects.

    * = juniors and third-year sophomores


    1 Indianapolis Colts


    Record: 1-13

    Andrew Luck*, QB, Stanford

    Luck is a once-in-a-generation quarterback prospect, and Colts legend Peyton Manning will be 36 next season and is coming off multiple neck surgeries. Given the financial implications, it looks like the smart decision is to draft Luck and part ways with Manning.



    2 St. Louis Rams


    Record: 2-12

    Matt Kalil*, OT, USC

    The Rams need to better protect the investment they made in 2010 No. 1 overall pick QB Sam Bradford, and current LOT Jason Smith has not lived up to expectations as the No. 2 overall pick in 2009. Given Kalil's size and athleticism, he is ready to step in right now and take over at left tackle.



    3 Minnesota Vikings


    Record: 2-12

    Morris Claiborne*, CB, LSU

    Claiborne is the premier cover corner in the 2012 class, and the Vikings rank 30th in the NFL in pass defense (260 ypg). He has size, fluid hips, good top-end speed and outstanding body control, and he excels at locating and attacking the ball over his shoulder.



    4 Cleveland Browns


    Record: 4-10

    Trent Richardson*, RB, Alabama

    Richardson is a more complete back than former Crimson Tide teammate Mark Ingram, the No. 28 pick to New Orleans in 2011. Richardson has a rare combination of size, speed, power, agility, burst and versatility, and is the rare exception to the don't-take-an-RB-in-the-top-10 rule.



    5 Jacksonville Jaguars


    Record: 4-10

    Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

    The Jaguars have a pressing need at defensive end, and while Coples is not a speed rusher, his blend of size, power and quickness allows him to be a productive pass-rusher (17.5 sacks the last two seasons) and disruptive against the run.





    6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Record: 4-10

    Dre Kirkpatrick*, CB, Alabama

    Ronde Barber is aging and Aqib Talib's future is up in the air, so Kirkpatrick makes sense. He flashes good instincts in off-man coverage, is physical in run support and has great size. Kirkpatrick is not elite in man-to-man coverage, but he's made huge strides in the last two seasons.


    7 Washington Redskins

    Record: 5-9

    Robert Griffin III*, QB, Baylor

    Finding a quarterback is a must for the Redskins, and this will be an interesting call if Griffin and USC's Matt Barkley are still on the board. Barkley would make sense, but it might be hard for Washington coach Mike Shanahan to pass on a dynamic athlete like Griffin.


    8 Miami Dolphins

    Record: 5-9

    Matt Barkley*, QB, USC

    Another team with an obvious need at quarterback, the Dolphins would be wise to take a young talent they can build their offense around for years to come.


    9 Carolina Panthers

    Record: 5-9

    Justin Blackmon*, WR, Oklahoma State

    I'm not a fan of taking wideouts in the top 10 unless they are in the elite category -- think Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green -- and Blackmon is not in that class. However, the Panthers will be searching for weapons to put around QB Cam Newton, and Blackmon is clearly the top receiver on the board. He has outstanding body control to make all kinds of catches, and it will be interesting to see whether the Panthers make the move.


    10 Buffalo Bills

    Record: 5-9

    Riley Reiff*, OT, Iowa

    The Bills have had a pressing need at left tackle for years, and haven't drafted one since they missed on Mike Williams at No. 4 overall in 2002. Reiff isn't a finished product but has good natural feet for his size, and he projects as a very good starting left tackle if developed properly. And despite the money Buffalo recently committed to Ryan Fitzpatrick, I think a quarterback would have to be in play here, as well. But the Bills wouldn't be likely to take Oklahoma's Landry Jones at this point.


    11 Philadelphia Eagles

    Record: 6-8

    Luke Kuechly*, ILB, Boston College

    The Andy Reid regime in Philadelphia has not used a first-round pick on a linebacker in 13 years, but this might be the time. Kuechly is perhaps the most productive linebacker in the nation, using elite instincts and anticipation to mask a lack of ideal athletic ability.


    12 Kansas City Chiefs

    Record: 6-8

    Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

    Barry Richardson will be a free agent after this season and Branden Albert might be a better fit at guard, so Martin would be a good fit here. The Chiefs need to solidify their offensive line, and Martin projects as a very good right tackle given his run-blocking prowess.


    13 Arizona Cardinals

    Record: 7-7

    Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

    Offensive tackle is a bigger need, but there is a big drop-off in talent after the top three tackles on the board. Upshaw is a good fit for the Cardinals' system given his size, strength and ability to set the edge against the run, and his finishing power as a pass-rusher.


    14 Tennessee Titans

    Record: 7-7

    Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

    Three of the Titans' top nine tacklers are from the 2011 draft -- LBs Akeem Ayers and Colin McCarthy and DT Jurrell Casey -- but Tennessee is still looking for reinforcements on that side of the ball. Given Branch's quickness, motor and strength, he is a perfect fit at right DE opposite former first-round pick Derrick Morgan. Tennessee also has a huge need at wide receiver, and this would be a good time to draft a young playmaker if Blackmon were to fall.


    15 San Diego Chargers

    Record: 7-7

    Mark Barron, S, Alabama

    There is not an offensive tackle available who could fill the Chargers' huge need, and Barron is the best player available at their other need positions (SS, NT, WR, ILB). He is physical in run support, can play the point in deep coverage, and would team with Eric Weddle to give San Diego one of the premier safety duos in the league.


    16 Seattle Seahawks

    Record: 7-7

    Landry Jones*, QB, Oklahoma

    The Seahawks have a clear need at quarterback, and while Jones' stock has dropped a bit and he may return to school, he still has first-round tools. He did not play well down the stretch, but his supporting cast is partly to blame. If Jones can regain his confidence, his natural ability is impressive.


    17 New York Giants

    Record: 7-7

    Vontaze Burfict*, ILB, Arizona State

    Current starting MLB Chase Blackburn is a free agent after this season, and while I'm not sure Burfict has the discipline and character the Giants would be looking for in the quarterback of their defense, he is double-stuffed with raw ability. He has impressive size, is a thumper against the run and shows good range in underneath coverage.


    18 Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)

    Record: 8-6

    David DeCastro*, G, Stanford

    DeCastro isn't a sexy pick, but he is by far the best interior lineman in the 2012 class and is ready to be an NFL starter right now. Both current Bengals starters -- Bobbie Williams and Nate Livings -- are set to become free agents, and DeCastro is the best player available at a need position.


    19 Chicago Bears

    Record: 7-7

    Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

    The Bears haven't take a receiver in the first round since David Terrell in 2001, and I understand their hesitation to draft wideouts so high. However, they must find weapons for QB Jay Cutler, and Roy Williams clearly doesn't make the cut. Floyd seems to have put off-field issues behind him, and his size and ability to play the deep ball make him an attractive option.


    20 Dallas Cowboys

    Record: 8-6

    Fletcher Cox*, DT, Mississippi State

    Dallas doesn't have a specific pressing need, but it could upgrade at safety, cornerback and outside linebacker, and free agency could create holes at guard and inside linebacker. However, Cox has come on this season and is an underrated player with the versatility to play end in the Cowboys' 3-4 scheme.


    21 Cincinnati Bengals

    Record: 8-6

    Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

    The Bengals' marginal depth at cornerback was exposed when starter Leon Hall went down for the season, and while Dennard has size limitations and might be a reach at this point, he's a fluid athlete with good instincts and mental toughness.


    22 New York Jets

    Record: 8-6

    Alshon Jeffery*, WR, South Carolina

    The Jets could be staring at a host of needs -- SS, DE, WR, NT, OLB -- on draft day, but Jeffery makes sense here if the team decides not to bring back Plaxico Burress. There are questions about Jeffery's quickness and ability to separate, but his ball skills down the field are simply too good to ignore.


    23 Denver Broncos

    Record: 8-6

    Devon Still, DT, Penn State

    Tim Tebow is not yet locked in as the Broncos' long-term starting quarterback, but assuming Tebow does hold on to the job, Denver would do well to continue building on defense to complement a low-risk offensive philosophy. Still could help do that with his ability to disrupt plays and cause havoc in the middle.


    24 Cleveland Browns (from ATL)

    Record: 4-10

    Kevin Reddick*, OLB, North Carolina

    Reddick is tough and instinctive, and he has the overall physical tools to offer an upgrade on the weak side in defensive coordinator Dick Jauron's 4-3 scheme.


    25 Detroit Lions

    Record: 9-5

    David Wilson*, RB, Virginia Tech

    Spending another high pick on a running back would be a tough pill to swallow, but Jahvid Best has proved he's not durable enough to be a workhorse back. Wilson is a burner with toughness and improved inside running skills, and he could provide big-play potential.


    26 Houston Texans

    Record: 10-4

    Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida State

    Sanders isn't a massive mauler, but he is a perfect fit for the Texans because of his versatility -- he played both tackle spots at FSU and could move inside to guard if necessary -- and his experience in a zone-blocking scheme with the Seminoles.


    Baltimore Ravens

    Record: 10-4

    Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

    The Ravens have several offensive linemen headed toward free agency, plus other issues still to be sorted out on defense. Adams is quick and long enough to ride pass-rushers past the pocket, and he has the ability to get into position and wall off defenders in the running game.


    Pittsburgh Steelers

    Record: 10-4

    Jarvis Jones*, OLB, Georgia

    Jones might be headed back to school and outside linebacker is not a big need for the Steelers, but at this point they could afford to use a luxury pick on a player with the skill set to possibly become the team's next great pass-rusher.


    New England Patriots (from N.O.)

    Record: 11-3

    Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

    Ingram's versatility makes him a perfect fit for the Patriots. He can play end or outside linebacker and also has experience rushing the passer from the inside. As a senior, Ingram emerged as a big-time playmaker (8.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL, 2 INT).


    San Francisco 49ers

    Record: 11-3

    Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

    The 49ers need to continue adding weapons on offense, and Wright is an explosive athlete who can stretch the field vertically, create after the catch and contribute in the return game.


    New England Patriots

    Record: 11-3

    Johnthan Banks*, CB, Mississippi State

    Banks is flying under the radar and could very well return to school, but he has the size and fluidity to help a New England pass defense that ranks dead last in the NFL (297 ypg) and has had trouble finding long-term secondary help in the draft.


    Green Bay Packers

    Record: 13-1


    Ronnell Lewis*, OLB, Oklahoma

    Clay Matthews is the team's only legitimate edge-rushing threat, and he needs some help. Lewis might be better off returning for his senior season to continue his development. But if he enters the draft, he flashes the kind of explosiveness that could help take some pressure off Matthews.




    Todd McShay is the director of college scouting for Scouts Inc. He has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998.

  • #2
    Er...ah...give me Burfict instead. But, I like the way they are thinking. We desperately need a LB.
    "Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann



    Comment


    • #3
      11 Philadelphia Eagles

      Record: 6-8

      Luke Kuechly*, ILB, Boston College

      The Andy Reid regime in Philadelphia has not used a first-round pick on a linebacker in 13 years, but this might be the time. Kuechly is perhaps the most productive linebacker in the nation, using elite instincts and anticipation to mask a lack of ideal athletic ability.

      Fantastic! Another slow guy!

      Burfict is the real deal.... if we take this guy, and the Giants land Burfict I will be pissed.

      Comment


      • #4
        I plan on watching Burfict tonight in the bowl game on ESPN.

        Comment


        • #5
          I don't want to hear the phrase "lack of athletic ability" in any of the first 3 rounds.

          Comment


          • #6
            DraftTek also has Keuchly slotted into the Eagles pick. Ronnell Lewis from Okla. in Rd2. That's two LB's, then OT Datko from Fla.State with other 2nd Rd pick. Third Rd has OG Nix from Pitt; DE Branch from Clemson; QB Kellen Moore, Boise State in Rd5. other rds not posted yet.
            http://www.drafttek.com/CMDRound1.asp

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by stocknowledge View Post
              Er...ah...give me Burfict instead. But, I like the way they are thinking. We desperately need a LB.
              If this story is true, it may be possible to grab Keuchly AND Burfict: http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/po...l-draft-boards

              EXCERPT:
              "...Both McShay and Kiper have been dropping Arizona State linebacker Vontaze Burfict. He fell from 15th to 21st with McShay, who writes:
              Questions about Burfict's on-field maturity and mental makeup have hurt his stock, but he's a physically gifted player with the tools of a top-10 prospect. He has the power to deliver heavy blows and solid range and awareness in underneath coverage.

              The Pac-12 blog suspects Burfict's play as well as off-field concerns might drop him from the first round entirely.

              Burfict has a big problem: He played for a coaching staff that just got fired. Many members of that staff are not fans of his. And because those coaches don't have to be accountable to Burfict, his teammates or the program going forward, they will provide unvarnished takes on Burfict to NFL personnel men. Some won't say nice things.

              Put this way: Burfict was benched in what is likely his last game as a Sun Devil. When his coaches asked him to return to the game, he reportedly refused, according to the Arizona Republic.

              That is not in the "How to Win Friends and Influence GMs" guide to the NFL draft.

              Then there's this from former Arizona State QB Danny White when he appeared on Brad Cesmat's radio show on XTRA Sports 910 AM in Phoenix on Nov. 29. Cesmat, according to the Arizona Republic, "mentioned that he thought ASU junior linebacker Vontaze Burfict was a microcosm of the [Dennis] Erickson era."

              Replied White: "I agree 100 percent," White said. "He was also the reason Dennis Erickson got fired. When your best football player is a guy like that, he's what I call a coach killer. He's such a great athlete, you have to have him on the field. But by the same token, the negatives outweigh the positives with him. As great a player as he is, you can' t have that. And then what happens, when if you don't take extreme measures with it, then it becomes a cancer on the team. And I started seeing other guys on the defense starting to act like that and I think it became infectious. No matter how good a player is, when he's got that kind of attitude on the field, when he hurts you like Vontaze hurt the team, you got to get rid of him. As hard as that is, and it's a hard thing to do, especially when he's your best player, you just can't have it or it does become a cancer, and I think he did."

              Burfict probably could benefit from another year in college. For one, he didn't play well this year, so he could return to the form that made him a consensus preseason All-American. And he desperately needs to grow up, something that won't happen with folks around him coddling him and telling him the way he behaves is OK.

              But it's doubtful he wants to return for his senior season, and it's also questionable whether or not the next coach would want to take a risk on him."

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by ThoughtProcess View Post
                If this story is true, it may be possible to grab Keuchly AND Burfict: http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/po...l-draft-boards

                EXCERPT:
                [/INDENT]
                Major Red Flag!!!

                Comment


                • #9
                  more draft stuff...opinion piece

                  http://bleacherreport.com/articles/9...gles-to-target

                  this guy forecasts WR Floyd in Rd 1

                  http://bleacherreport.com/articles/9...ctions/page/15

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    No doubt Burfict is a head case right now, but with the right coaching he is another Ray Lewis... minus the murder charge of course (we hope)...

                    I'm an ASU fan, and seen about every game, and the refs just have it out for him. He gets flagged for everything. Other players chip him to get him going.. then one shove, that happens all the time.... later, and it's flag city.

                    He is a beast.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by ThoughtProcess View Post
                      DraftTek also has Keuchly slotted into the Eagles pick. Ronnell Lewis from Okla. in Rd2. That's two LB's, then OT Datko from Fla.State with other 2nd Rd pick. Third Rd has OG Nix from Pitt; DE Branch from Clemson; QB Kellen Moore, Boise State in Rd5. other rds not posted yet.
                      http://www.drafttek.com/CMDRound1.asp
                      I hope this is NOT the way it plays out. It would mean we'd still be left without any improvement at safety!
                      Official Driver of the Eagles Bandwagon!!!
                      Bleedin' Green since birth!

                      "Do not regret growing older. It is a privilege denied to many." - Mike Willey

                      ”Enjoy The Ride!!!” - Bob Marcus

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Jukin View Post
                        I hope this is NOT the way it plays out. It would mean we'd still be left without any improvement at safety!
                        Yes, I agree. Lukewarm on this mock. However, after spending two second-rd picks on the position, it might be unlikeley that they grab a safety before Rd3. Of course, I could be wrong.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I think Safety needs to be addressed via free agency. Not sure who is out there, but there were some comments by Sharper last night that seem to have soem truth. It si tough on experieinced DB's when safeties are so young. No QB to call plays and facilitate communication. They simply do not know what they are looking at. While some of the FA may not have the skills, they may bring the maturity

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            We need someone who consistently tears the heads off of people. I'm tired of watching our defense play two-hand touch.
                            "Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann



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                            • #15
                              Has anyone watched Keuchly play? What does he look like in action? He has the stats, but I've never seen him.

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