Jordan Matthews and the Fallacy of Incomplete Evidence
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
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Sounds like a Harry Potter movie, doesn't it?
On Sunday, August 6, 2017, ESPN wrote the following about Jordan Matthews:
He ranks first in receptions (225) and third in receiving yards (2,673) among all-time Eagles in their first three years, and is one of only five players in NFL history with 65-plus receptions and 800-plus receiving yards in each of their first three seasons. The other four? Randy Moss, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and A.J. Green. Not bad.
In statistics, this is what’s known as The Fallacy of Incomplete Evidence (aka Cherry Picking). Cherry picking is defined by Wikipedia as:
The act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position.
In other words, let’s make sure we pick juuuuuuuusssst enough receptions to take out the deep threats like Desean Jackson but not enough yards to disqualify Jordan Matthews himself! Let's make sure we don't include juggernauts like Calvin Johnson or Brandin Cooks that were not asked to do much in their rookie seasons! While we’re at it, we certainly better make sure not include players that got hurt in even one of their first three seasons, like Sammy Watkins! Yaaaayyyy!
The result? A well-crafted list of 5 receivers in NFL history to achieve an arbitrary stat line! But not only are you fine-tuning an argument specifically for the player you are trying to support, you're putting him in company where he clearly does not belong!
Evans averages: 79 rec, 1193 yards, 9 TDs
Beckham averages: 96 rec, 1374 yards, 12 TDs
Green averages: 80 rec, 1189 yards, 8 TDs
Moss averages: 77 rec, 1205 yards, 12 TDs
WOW!!!
Jordan Matthews averages: 75 rec, 891 yards, 6 TDs
Meh.
So yes, he's purposefully included in your group of 5 players, but even then, just barely. Over 24 COMBINED seasons, the other 4 in that group averaged 5 more catches for a whopping 329 additional yards and 4 more TDs (80 rec, 1221 yards, 11 TDs). Does he really fit? Not to mention, Amari Cooper and Michael Thomas are likely to join that same "club" over the next couple of years.
But wait….there’s more!!!
Jordan Matthews "achieved" this amazing feat from the slot position while those other four wide receivers not only dominated on the outside but also as the team’s #1 wide receiver and best offensive weapon, meaning defensive coordinators were scheming to find a way to stop them. Teams that have a lockdown cornerback that can switch sides would lock up that player in man-to-man coverage for the entire game. We’re talking about cornerbacks that will eventually be in the Hall of Fame. Others have a lockdown corner that doesn't switch sides, but deploy in 1v1 man coverage when that receiver is on their side. These are potential Hall of Famers as well. Still other teams that don’t have that caliber player, used bracket coverage (See: Team, Double) to limit their effectiveness over the top and/or a middle linebacker to reduce their contribution underneath. That's a lot of resources spent to stop them...with very little effectiveness.
Not Jordan Matthews. Coordinators don’t scheme to stop him. Due to his limitations, they know exactly where he will be on every play. And, even if he doesn’t drop the ball, his 11.3 ypc is not the thing that strikes fear in the hearts of defenses. When teams want to stop the run, he’ll see a LINEBACKER in coverage. When they want to stop the pass, he’ll see a nickel corner that is probably giving up 3-6 inches in height and 30+ pounds…that was likely on the roster bubble during training camp. With that kind of attention, he absolutely SHOULD be in the list he’s in…but his numbers should more closely resemble the others.
Conclusion:
The bottom line is this. Jordan Matthews is a flawed receiver. However, he's a hard worker with zero off-field issues that even handles himself well in front of the cameras (most of the time…JMatt, don’t bring up mock drafts, lol). But tell me you wouldn't trade Jordan Matthews, straight up, for other secondary options IN THE DIVISION like Sterling Shephard from the New York Giants, Jamison Crowder from the Washington Football Team, or even Cole Beasley from the Dallas Cowgirls? Would you not trade him, straight up, even for former Eagles Desean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin?? What about for a converted quarterback like Terrelle Pryor?? Or maybe for a much better (primary) slot receiver like Jarvis Landry, who’s only excluded from this list because of 42 yards in his 10-game rookie season?? Or possibly for a Randall Cobb who is a matchup nightmare anywhere and has seen catch rates above 70% for his entire career??
This is not about liking/disliking. This is about what is best for your football team. And what is best for them is to NOT pay a player who has been extraordinarily average like he has been extraordinarily good, due to inflated targets/snaps and volume-based stats. My favorite, go-to line about the salary cap is that it is a pie chart, not a bar graph. For every player that you overpay, you lose the ability to sign another, whether that’s in-house or via free agency. To illustrate that very succinctly, Jordan Matthews’ contract could be the reason we don’t have the money to lock up Jordan Hicks or Alshon Jeffrey long term. Is that worth it for a player who, on the field, is so easily replaced? For a player who has consistently left us underwhelmed in the big situations? For a player who let two perfectly placed touchdowns go by the wayside for his rookie QB just last year when, by his own words, needed to be the leader for the Eagles’ receivers? Those two catches alone would have taken his QB rating from a 79.3 to an 81.7 (given he threw an interception after the play where he failed to drag his foot)!
In the end, you’ve got to stop citing these types of stats for your argument. Because, I don’t have the numbers, but I’d bet there is another list that he probably belongs to:
How many receivers have seen over 100 targets every year since entering the league, but have yet to top 1,000 yards in a season by Year 3?
And, in this one post, I have managed to name 15 NFL wide receivers that you would likely rather have over Jordan Matthews. He’s average…but he won’t be paid that way. And I, for one, would never pay Morton's price for an Outback steak.
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
TWEET SHARE PIN
Sounds like a Harry Potter movie, doesn't it?
On Sunday, August 6, 2017, ESPN wrote the following about Jordan Matthews:
He ranks first in receptions (225) and third in receiving yards (2,673) among all-time Eagles in their first three years, and is one of only five players in NFL history with 65-plus receptions and 800-plus receiving yards in each of their first three seasons. The other four? Randy Moss, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and A.J. Green. Not bad.
In statistics, this is what’s known as The Fallacy of Incomplete Evidence (aka Cherry Picking). Cherry picking is defined by Wikipedia as:
The act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position.
In other words, let’s make sure we pick juuuuuuuusssst enough receptions to take out the deep threats like Desean Jackson but not enough yards to disqualify Jordan Matthews himself! Let's make sure we don't include juggernauts like Calvin Johnson or Brandin Cooks that were not asked to do much in their rookie seasons! While we’re at it, we certainly better make sure not include players that got hurt in even one of their first three seasons, like Sammy Watkins! Yaaaayyyy!
The result? A well-crafted list of 5 receivers in NFL history to achieve an arbitrary stat line! But not only are you fine-tuning an argument specifically for the player you are trying to support, you're putting him in company where he clearly does not belong!
Evans averages: 79 rec, 1193 yards, 9 TDs
Beckham averages: 96 rec, 1374 yards, 12 TDs
Green averages: 80 rec, 1189 yards, 8 TDs
Moss averages: 77 rec, 1205 yards, 12 TDs
WOW!!!
Jordan Matthews averages: 75 rec, 891 yards, 6 TDs
Meh.
So yes, he's purposefully included in your group of 5 players, but even then, just barely. Over 24 COMBINED seasons, the other 4 in that group averaged 5 more catches for a whopping 329 additional yards and 4 more TDs (80 rec, 1221 yards, 11 TDs). Does he really fit? Not to mention, Amari Cooper and Michael Thomas are likely to join that same "club" over the next couple of years.
But wait….there’s more!!!
Jordan Matthews "achieved" this amazing feat from the slot position while those other four wide receivers not only dominated on the outside but also as the team’s #1 wide receiver and best offensive weapon, meaning defensive coordinators were scheming to find a way to stop them. Teams that have a lockdown cornerback that can switch sides would lock up that player in man-to-man coverage for the entire game. We’re talking about cornerbacks that will eventually be in the Hall of Fame. Others have a lockdown corner that doesn't switch sides, but deploy in 1v1 man coverage when that receiver is on their side. These are potential Hall of Famers as well. Still other teams that don’t have that caliber player, used bracket coverage (See: Team, Double) to limit their effectiveness over the top and/or a middle linebacker to reduce their contribution underneath. That's a lot of resources spent to stop them...with very little effectiveness.
Not Jordan Matthews. Coordinators don’t scheme to stop him. Due to his limitations, they know exactly where he will be on every play. And, even if he doesn’t drop the ball, his 11.3 ypc is not the thing that strikes fear in the hearts of defenses. When teams want to stop the run, he’ll see a LINEBACKER in coverage. When they want to stop the pass, he’ll see a nickel corner that is probably giving up 3-6 inches in height and 30+ pounds…that was likely on the roster bubble during training camp. With that kind of attention, he absolutely SHOULD be in the list he’s in…but his numbers should more closely resemble the others.
Conclusion:
The bottom line is this. Jordan Matthews is a flawed receiver. However, he's a hard worker with zero off-field issues that even handles himself well in front of the cameras (most of the time…JMatt, don’t bring up mock drafts, lol). But tell me you wouldn't trade Jordan Matthews, straight up, for other secondary options IN THE DIVISION like Sterling Shephard from the New York Giants, Jamison Crowder from the Washington Football Team, or even Cole Beasley from the Dallas Cowgirls? Would you not trade him, straight up, even for former Eagles Desean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin?? What about for a converted quarterback like Terrelle Pryor?? Or maybe for a much better (primary) slot receiver like Jarvis Landry, who’s only excluded from this list because of 42 yards in his 10-game rookie season?? Or possibly for a Randall Cobb who is a matchup nightmare anywhere and has seen catch rates above 70% for his entire career??
This is not about liking/disliking. This is about what is best for your football team. And what is best for them is to NOT pay a player who has been extraordinarily average like he has been extraordinarily good, due to inflated targets/snaps and volume-based stats. My favorite, go-to line about the salary cap is that it is a pie chart, not a bar graph. For every player that you overpay, you lose the ability to sign another, whether that’s in-house or via free agency. To illustrate that very succinctly, Jordan Matthews’ contract could be the reason we don’t have the money to lock up Jordan Hicks or Alshon Jeffrey long term. Is that worth it for a player who, on the field, is so easily replaced? For a player who has consistently left us underwhelmed in the big situations? For a player who let two perfectly placed touchdowns go by the wayside for his rookie QB just last year when, by his own words, needed to be the leader for the Eagles’ receivers? Those two catches alone would have taken his QB rating from a 79.3 to an 81.7 (given he threw an interception after the play where he failed to drag his foot)!
In the end, you’ve got to stop citing these types of stats for your argument. Because, I don’t have the numbers, but I’d bet there is another list that he probably belongs to:
How many receivers have seen over 100 targets every year since entering the league, but have yet to top 1,000 yards in a season by Year 3?
And, in this one post, I have managed to name 15 NFL wide receivers that you would likely rather have over Jordan Matthews. He’s average…but he won’t be paid that way. And I, for one, would never pay Morton's price for an Outback steak.
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