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GO PHILS! 46-28 2nd Half [45-29 Actual NL EAST CHAMPS!]

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  • #16
    Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

    Yes. Sell. Don't be foolish now. I retract my buy comments. Gillick needs to deal Rowand, Barajas and even Adam Eaton if he can get a buyer.
    Carson Wentz ERA


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    • #17
      Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

      Actually - there are some compelling arguments that say buy everything today. I don't agree with them but the thought process is that next year you have Utley playing at 29, Rollins at 29 and Howard at 28 so go for it all now. I disagree. 2009 might have to be the time we wait for when the likes of a Carrasco, Carpenter, Happ, Outman have the opportunity to fill out the rotation. At that point, Hamels has established his continuing dominance and you HOPE the Phils have signed a Johan Santana! (just kidding - no chance IMO). I don't know where to go with this ownership group. While they said they were a top 5 payroll team as they moved into CBP - they are now 12th and being passed by the likes of the Mariners, Cubs, Tigers, Orioles, Cardinals, etc. while CBP continues to rake in the $.

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      • #18
        Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

        Originally posted by stevemc
        Actually - there are some compelling arguments that say buy everything today. I don't agree with them but the thought process is that next year you have Utley playing at 29, Rollins at 29 and Howard at 28 so go for it all now. I disagree. 2009 might have to be the time we wait for when the likes of a Carrasco, Carpenter, Happ, Outman have the opportunity to fill out the rotation. At that point, Hamels has established his continuing dominance and you HOPE the Phils have signed a Johan Santana! (just kidding - no chance IMO). I don't know where to go with this ownership group. While they said they were a top 5 payroll team as they moved into CBP - they are now 12th and being passed by the likes of the Mariners, Cubs, Tigers, Orioles, Cardinals, etc. while CBP continues to rake in the $.

        i don't disagree with this -- this core group is definitely in its prime. i just think it has to happen in the offseason for next year, rather than for the mediocre crap you have to overpay for at the deadline.
        Don't kid yourself Jimmy. If a cow ever got the chance, he'd kill you and everyone you cared about!

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        • #19
          Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

          Baseball isn't football.

          Utley, Howard and Rollins all have 6-7 years left before they are out of their peak years. 35-36 is when you'll see them begin to decline. Let's not panic here.
          Carson Wentz ERA


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          • #20
            Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

            Actually, most of the research about baseball peak ages support a peak around age 28-30. That is why getting prospects to the ML early and surrounding them with good teammates is so crucial. That coincides of course with their pre-arb years when they are hopefully cheap in relation to their production.

            It does not mean players cannot stay at a high level until age 35+; only that the odds and research is against them.

            Take Abreu for example...he had always been one of the most consistently good producers, but this year at age 33 the inevitable decline has begun...33 is still later than most players and will differ between each individual player, but it is still shocking to see Abreu's production after so many years of good return.

            Howard and Utley started in the league late for their ages and Rollins has only gotten more consistent the last 2 years IMO...add in Vic who also is not young, the reality the Phillies will dump Burrell as soon as they can and the probability they will be unlikely to afford Rowand and the offense not only appears to be in their prime now, but in need of a talent infusion certainly in the OF and 3B...an OF of Bourn, Vic and Werth/Dobbs is truly sad...and another season of watching guys like Nunez, Helms and Bell man 3B may kill me...

            If the Phillies continue to screw up in building their roster, letting resources go without return and signing/trading for mediocre pitching, that prime will come and go without any banners and parades. Hopefully Gillick and Manuel will both be fired, the ownership and management will buy a clue and bring in some baseball people who understand the modern game, how to build a long term winner and be willing to invest the necessary money to get the talent we need to win especially pitching...it will be a shame if we waste Utley/Howard/Hamels/Myers/Rollins like we did Abreu/Wolf/Myers/Rolen/Schill.
            Eliminate distractions, create energy, fear nothing, and attack everything.

            -Andy Reid

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            • #21
              Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

              6-4 since the ALL STAR Break.

              Updated Rest of the Way: 40-24

              Must sweep the NATIONALS. Can have no excuse. This could be the 10 game winning streak I require to have a chance at 90 wins.

              NATIONALS x 3
              PIRATES x 3

              ? C'mon. We can do this...Even with this staff... [-o<
              Carson Wentz ERA


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              • #22
                Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

                Originally posted by Vote for Kalas
                Actually, most of the research about baseball peak ages support a peak around age 28-30. That is why getting prospects to the ML early and surrounding them with good teammates is so crucial. That coincides of course with their pre-arb years when they are hopefully cheap in relation to their production.

                It does not mean players cannot stay at a high level until age 35+; only that the odds and research is against them.

                Take Abreu for example...he had always been one of the most consistently good producers, but this year at age 33 the inevitable decline has begun...33 is still later than most players and will differ between each individual player, but it is still shocking to see Abreu's production after so many years of good return.

                Howard and Utley started in the league late for their ages and Rollins has only gotten more consistent the last 2 years IMO...add in Vic who also is not young, the reality the Phillies will dump Burrell as soon as they can and the probability they will be unlikely to afford Rowand and the offense not only appears to be in their prime now, but in need of a talent infusion certainly in the OF and 3B...an OF of Bourn, Vic and Werth/Dobbs is truly sad...and another season of watching guys like Nunez, Helms and Bell man 3B may kill me...

                If the Phillies continue to screw up in building their roster, letting resources go without return and signing/trading for mediocre pitching, that prime will come and go without any banners and parades. Hopefully Gillick and Manuel will both be fired, the ownership and management will buy a clue and bring in some baseball people who understand the modern game, how to build a long term winner and be willing to invest the necessary money to get the talent we need to win especially pitching...it will be a shame if we waste Utley/Howard/Hamels/Myers/Rollins like we did Abreu/Wolf/Myers/Rolen/Schill.

                it's really more of an ownership issue than one in which Gillick and Manuel should be held up to the microscope, IMO. these owners run an awful organization. they decide to dump placido polanco because david bell has guaranteed money they won't eat. they value loyalty and toadyism like the Bush Administration -- in fact, I think Gillick has been essentially neutered in favor of stoolie Ruben Amaro. they won't break slot for drafted players. they act like the KGB when it comes to injuries, and fail to do their due diligence when a guy like Garcia comes available, even when his velocity had dropped noticeably last year.

                Gillick made a series of bets this year -- particularly Garcia, Helms and Eaton -- that haven't worked out and may cost them a playoff spot. still, there is a lot to like about this group going forward. they are a very consistent offensive group that scores a lot of runs. They need pitching, but Gillick seems to recognize that he's going to have to grow it from within -- and seems willing to move pitching along in the system.

                I hope they sign Outman and Sampson. Not sure about Rowand, but there are a lot of CF's on the market this year, so they might keep him. They need to address 3B and decide what to do about Myers. Obviously, they need more pitching. But I would keep Gillick and Manuel. Cholly's Wallbangers has a ring to it.
                Don't kid yourself Jimmy. If a cow ever got the chance, he'd kill you and everyone you cared about!

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                • #23
                  Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

                  Very little of the good core moving forward derives from Gillick, however, and he has made alot of stupid mistakes IMO...

                  If Gillick has no authority and disagrees so vehemently with Monty and the owners, then he should resign and walk away with whatever dignity he has left intact. I doubt that is the case. Gillick was hired and agreed to take the job because he basically agrees with the Phillies philosophy and thought they were a team on the rise he could get over the top.

                  He has stagnated the team and we are on pace again to miss the playoffs most likely...the team does have good talent, but really needs pitching big time and better 3B and OF IMO. There is no salary cap, they dumped Abreu for trash and will likely dump Burrell soon for same so whining about money not being available is hogwash IMO. That is on the owners I agree, but if Gillick is so respected he should be able to make the case and get them to invest enough to build a winner. 95M was good 4 years ago, but now they are roughly 14th in payroll and need to pony up. Gillick should be abale to do it with 95M if he does it smartly (which he has not yet), but having that extra cash to use would make it much easier.
                  Eliminate distractions, create energy, fear nothing, and attack everything.

                  -Andy Reid

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                  • #24
                    Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

                    BP - your boy Outman shines again last night after Myers stared the game:

                    6 2/3, 5H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5Ks. His ERA is down to 2.45 and he stands at 10-4 on the season.

                    Downside - Carrasco got roughed up in Reading.

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                    • #25
                      Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

                      Originally posted by stevemc
                      BP - your boy Outman shines again last night after Myers stared the game:

                      6 2/3, 5H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5Ks. His ERA is down to 2.45 and he stands at 10-4 on the season.

                      Downside - Carrasco got roughed up in Reading.
                      i know the fact that myers started last night doesnt mean he's going to come back as a starter, but i'm still going to hope for it.

                      correction on my previous post calling for Outman to be signed, i'm thinking of the other guy, workman. Outman is a nice-looking lefty prospect, throws hard, no?
                      Don't kid yourself Jimmy. If a cow ever got the chance, he'd kill you and everyone you cared about!

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                      • #26
                        Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

                        Originally posted by Vote for Kalas
                        Very little of the good core moving forward derives from Gillick, however, and he has made alot of stupid mistakes IMO...

                        If Gillick has no authority and disagrees so vehemently with Monty and the owners, then he should resign and walk away with whatever dignity he has left intact. I doubt that is the case. Gillick was hired and agreed to take the job because he basically agrees with the Phillies philosophy and thought they were a team on the rise he could get over the top.

                        He has stagnated the team and we are on pace again to miss the playoffs most likely...the team does have good talent, but really needs pitching big time and better 3B and OF IMO. There is no salary cap, they dumped Abreu for trash and will likely dump Burrell soon for same so whining about money not being available is hogwash IMO. That is on the owners I agree, but if Gillick is so respected he should be able to make the case and get them to invest enough to build a winner. 95M was good 4 years ago, but now they are roughly 14th in payroll and need to pony up. Gillick should be abale to do it with 95M if he does it smartly (which he has not yet), but having that extra cash to use would make it much easier.

                        most of your rips here seem to be about money -- that's on the owners.

                        i've always been an abreu fan, but it's certainly an arguable point that they made the right move trading him last year at the deadline. his game is on the decline. and the fact is, the yanks were the only team interested in trading for him. so they were never going to get much.

                        they have not suffered offensively at all, despite abreu's departure. even the most ardent abreu fan has to recognize that. it's also a fair point to contend it was time to turn the team over to utley and howard. they have certainly not disappointed.

                        as for me, i attribute that offensive production to manuel and milt thompson. thompson was on the 93 phils, which was a great team for power and patience. i recall a scout saying that year: "Every time I look up, they've got someone on first and third." and i think manuel deserves his fair share of credit as well. how else do you explain rowand becoming an OBP machine this year?

                        that's the main reason i want manuel to say. it's pretty clear the phils as an organization are old-school in their approach to hitting. they preach aggression at the plate, make platitudes about speed and small ball. but at the big league level, they're an OBP and run-scoring machine. somewhere there's a disconnect. i love this offense -- keep charlie.

                        and i would argue that gillick deserves one more year to recast the pitching staff.

                        i think it's unfair for you to rip gillick by predicting they will dump burrell. what have they done with burrell other than try and get him going? they're not roasting him in public. face it, the guy was a black hole in the first half, even with his decent OBP. that's saying something. hopefully, his play will improve in the second half.
                        Don't kid yourself Jimmy. If a cow ever got the chance, he'd kill you and everyone you cared about!

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

                          Originally posted by stevemc
                          BP - your boy Outman shines again last night after Myers stared the game:

                          6 2/3, 5H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5Ks. His ERA is down to 2.45 and he stands at 10-4 on the season.

                          Downside - Carrasco got roughed up in Reading.

                          Update on BP's "boy" - Outman promoted to Reading and is starting on Saturday

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

                            Originally posted by stevemc
                            Originally posted by stevemc
                            BP - your boy Outman shines again last night after Myers stared the game:

                            6 2/3, 5H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5Ks. His ERA is down to 2.45 and he stands at 10-4 on the season.

                            Downside - Carrasco got roughed up in Reading.

                            Update on BP's "boy" - Outman promoted to Reading and is starting on Saturday
                            I like the new, more aggressive promotion schedule the Phils have adopted under Gillick.
                            Don't kid yourself Jimmy. If a cow ever got the chance, he'd kill you and everyone you cared about!

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

                              Originally posted by Leonard Tose
                              Originally posted by stevemc
                              Originally posted by stevemc
                              BP - your boy Outman shines again last night after Myers stared the game:

                              6 2/3, 5H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5Ks. His ERA is down to 2.45 and he stands at 10-4 on the season.

                              Downside - Carrasco got roughed up in Reading.

                              Update on BP's "boy" - Outman promoted to Reading and is starting on Saturday
                              I like the new, more aggressive promotion schedule the Phils have adopted under Gillick.
                              totally agree!!!
                              www.disciplerocks.com

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                              • #30
                                Re: GO PHILS! 46-28 Second Half

                                Outman / Hamels / Savery. We're going to corner the market on slick southpaws.
                                Carson Wentz ERA


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