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  • #31
    Originally posted by Fantasy Guru
    whats the probability math behind your system? (once upon a time i used to be a math geek.)

    What if you were to use these as the "official" odds: http://www.vegasinsider.com/u/futures/NFL_1033.cfm
    Eight times in 39 years the defending Super Bowl Champion won the Super Bowl, or basically once every five times (GB, MIA, PIT, PIT, SF, DAL, DEN, NE). The salary cap makes it harder for teams to remain consistent as well. Since 1998, 3/7 of the defending Super Bowl champions failed to make the playoffs!

    I figure (not based on math) that it is twice as hard to repeat in the salary cap era. So if the defending champion is a contender, then I believe 10-1 is a fair number. It will take more time to prove this out since the salary cap only started affecting teams badly in the late 1990s. So half is math-based, the other half is hypothetical.

    Seven of the Super Bowl runner-ups made the Super Bowl the following season, or about 1 in 6. I don't remember exactly how it comes out, but I chose to round it to 6-1. After that, it becomes less mathematical. The top 5 teams from the previous season have gone on to win the Super Bowl I think 21 times (I don't remember), almost half the time. Thus that would be 1-1. Adding the sixth best team does not change it that much and thus it came to 1-1.25. I averaged the two together (non-top 6 team included) and it comes to 1-1.125.

    I have the entire thing figured out somewhere, but that is basically it.
    "And they're not gonna get him today." - Legendary Calder Track Announcer Phil Saltzman.

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    • #32
      Maximus, you show who you are in every post, a pathetic baby boy, who needs more love. I feel bad for your parents, I don't even know if I would take your money, that is how badly I pitty you. One day you will grow up, your tag line is so original, come up with your own thoughts please, and go to school and get your G.E.D.
      Gay for Brady, any day.

      Dynasty

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      • #33
        Wow! Spoken like a true asshole! (there's another unoriginal for you) I don't know what I've cried about, but one things for sure- I do need to change my tag line; just let me know how much we're betting and save the simple talk for someone who cares.
        I'm going back to Houston... to do the hotdog dance. I'm going back to Houston.... gonna get some pants.

        -Beck

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        • #34
          What'd you say about my momma?
          I have never done steroids. Period. Well, not today, anyway.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by trufresh17
            What'd you say about my momma?

            Don't Be a Menace to Society While Drinking Your Juice in the Hood?
            Support Sportscolumn.com! Tell a friend!

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            • #36
              look what one person has done to this place!

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              • #37
                That was what the store clerk said to Old Dogg before he got three in the head. That's all I'm sayin'.

                Menace II Society, Guru, so you're not far off.
                I have never done steroids. Period. Well, not today, anyway.

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                • #38
                  O dog, not OLD DOG.
                  Gay for Brady, any day.

                  Dynasty

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                  • #39
                    Same result, Scott.
                    I have never done steroids. Period. Well, not today, anyway.

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                    • #40
                      nope, there is a difference between old dog and O dog. I feel sorry for your mother, is different than I feel sorry for your father. kane
                      Gay for Brady, any day.

                      Dynasty

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                      • #41
                        Ummm Jacksonville finished not...if they had they probably would have made the playoffs. The squaked by GB, lost 21-0 to Houston (when they still had a good shot of making the playoffs) and then squeaked by Oakland in the final weak when their season was already over.
                        Whatcha Gonna Do Brother, When the Eagles run wild on you?

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                        • #42
                          I like these what ifs, what happened was they didn't make the playoffs, and won't this year AGAIN.
                          Gay for Brady, any day.

                          Dynasty

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