Originally posted by Fantasy Guru
I figure (not based on math) that it is twice as hard to repeat in the salary cap era. So if the defending champion is a contender, then I believe 10-1 is a fair number. It will take more time to prove this out since the salary cap only started affecting teams badly in the late 1990s. So half is math-based, the other half is hypothetical.
Seven of the Super Bowl runner-ups made the Super Bowl the following season, or about 1 in 6. I don't remember exactly how it comes out, but I chose to round it to 6-1. After that, it becomes less mathematical. The top 5 teams from the previous season have gone on to win the Super Bowl I think 21 times (I don't remember), almost half the time. Thus that would be 1-1. Adding the sixth best team does not change it that much and thus it came to 1-1.25. I averaged the two together (non-top 6 team included) and it comes to 1-1.125.
I have the entire thing figured out somewhere, but that is basically it.
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