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Some thoughts for AR in time managment

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  • Some thoughts for AR in time managment

    Phil Sheridan | Time management: Reid should rethink his strategy.
    By Phil Sheridan - Inquirer Columnist

    The good news for the Eagles is that this year's T.O. problem won't require special masters or hovering TV helicopters to resolve.

    This year's problem - time-outs - is something Andy Reid can fix all by himself.

    The first step is as simple as making that "T" with your hands: Drop the knee-jerk assumption that a time-out is a better option than a measly 5-yard penalty for delay of the game.

    Reid and Donovan McNabb used two of their three second-half time-outs in New Orleans on Sunday to prevent the play clock from running down to zero. That left the Eagles with just one to stop the clock when the Saints marched downfield for the game-winning field goal.

    John Reed, who wrote a book on football clock management, suggests a shift from traditional thinking when it comes to the time-out.

    "Calling time-out because of some screw-up is a very bad habit because it wastes time-outs and will not work when you screw up and no longer have any time-outs left," Reed writes on his Web site, johntreed.com. "You need to practice not calling time-outs. Give your quarterback some other solution and practice it."

    In fairness, the Eagles were dealing with several issues when they used those time-outs. It was incredibly loud in the Superdome, as the roar of a sellout crowd reverberated off the new roof. Plays are being called through helmet radios that don't always provide perfect clarity. On a crucial down, the opposition may be in the perfect defense to stop the play you've called.

    But all of these things should be anticipated. You know it's going to be loud. You know there will be some communication issues. You know there are going to be unfavorable matchups at times.

    Reid should heed Reed. Give McNabb, who is in his eighth season running Reid's offense, the freedom to call a play on his own. Set aside a handful of plays featuring a certain personnel grouping for situations where the game is on the line, especially on the road. Finally, accept the 5-yard penalty for delay sometimes.

    The Eagles pride themselves on having a big-play offense and a Pro Bowl quarterback. Essentially, the Eagles gave up the chance to get the ball at the end of Sunday's game in exchange for 5 yards in one quarter and 5 yards in another.

    Bill Rasker has a different take. He writes about football strategy and trends on his Web site, footballcommentary.com. Using data from hundreds of games, Rasker created a model that computes how different situations affect a team's probability of winning.

    The Eagles used a time-out with 6 minutes, 11 seconds left in the third quarter while they were down by a touchdown.

    "That affected their probability of winning the game by less than 1 percent," Rasker said.

    As for the fourth-quarter time-out in a tie game? Same thing.

    "You would like to run your offense so you don't have to use a time-out in that situation," Rasker said. "But it's surprising how little it happens that the time-outs at the end affect the outcome. When it does happen, though, you remember it."

    So how do you reconcile these different views? One way to figure the value of the time-out is to analyze the results it produces. And when you look at it that way, it's hard to argue that the Eagles are better off burning them to save a 5-yard penalty.

    Look at the two from the second half Sunday.

    Third quarter, third and 11. After the time-out, McNabb threw deep for Reggie Brown, incomplete. The Eagles punted.

    Fourth quarter, third and 11. After the time-out, McNabb was hit as he fired a short swing pass, incomplete, intended for a well-covered Brian Westbrook. The Eagles punted.

    So far this season, the Eagles have used time-outs 15 times to stop the clock during offensive drives. Three of those were in the final minute of the second half in Houston, so those were really meant to stop the clock. Of the other 12 times, the play called during the time-out resulted in a first down just three times. Five times, McNabb threw an incomplete pass. Three times, he was sacked. One play picked up 6 yards when 10 were needed.

    So the time-out is as likely to produce a sack as a first down, and three times as likely to force a punt as to extend a drive.

    Could McNabb do worse if he improvised with a play call of his own? Would the results be much worse if the Eagles took the 5-yard penalty? Now does the time-out seem more valuable as a device to manage the clock than as a way to make an offensive play call?

    It's something Reid and every coach should think about - before the play clock is down to :03, :02, :01.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Post a question or comment for Phil Sheridan at http://go.philly.com/asksheridan. Or by e-mail: [email protected].
    www.disciplerocks.com

  • #2
    what Sheridan says here and I've been dwelling on for a week is for AR to give McNabb some leeway. If the play doesn't come in by "XX" seconds left on the play clock - McNabb can call it.

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    • #3
      Wouldn't it be easier for AR to just tell McNabb "if we cant get the play in on time, then you run"?
      Hell, we'd all be PRAYING for crowd noise then!

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      • #4
        McNabb is a smart guy - you can give him a little leeway here. Why if the play isn't in can't McNabb call a formation, get to the line, see if he sees something enough to audible and if all else goes wrong, you try a hard snap count to draw them offsides and take the 5 yard penalty if everything goes to crap?

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        • #5
          Agreed.

          And I don't know really why Andy waits so long to get the play in. It's not like that by now, he doesn't have control of his playbook.

          Of course, an advantage to a late call is to study the defensive personell and exploit matchups. Which Andy has been dowing correctly most of the times.

          However, I do agree that sometimes, a delay of game penalty is BETTER than a time out.

          I would have made a case if a large majority of our plays after a time-out were 1st downs, or at least successful plays. But if it's going to be an incomplete pass, might as well take the penalty.
          "You will dress only in attire specially sanctioned by P.E. special services… You are no longer part of the system. You are above the system, over it, beyond it. We're "them." We're "they." We are the Men in Green."

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          • #6
            "This year's problem - time-outs - is something Andy Reid can fix all by himself. "

            Lost me right here-- if he thinks that time outs is "this years problem" he ain't watching the same games I am.

            I got many other things I'd label as "this years probem" before I got down to time outs!

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            • #7
              Yeah, POOR COACHING!!
              http://shop.cafepress.com/content/global/img/spacer.gifOK, let's try this again...

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              • #8
                I think some people are being a bit too loose with the 5-yard penalties. I suppose there are times when it's worth it to take the penalty, but when you're trailing in the second half? Can you really afford to stall out a drive in that situation? And one of the 'delay of game' timeouts came at 3rd and 11 - is it really a 'measly' five yards when it'll put you at 3rd and 16?

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                • #9
                  C'mon IMK...you know it is not the defense that gave up the 8+ minute final drive to the Saints...it was the offense and Reid's fault for not having used their TO effectively! 3rd and 16? Don't we have a running play for that conversion?
                  Eliminate distractions, create energy, fear nothing, and attack everything.

                  -Andy Reid

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                  • #10
                    Guys,

                    sometimes, time-outs are handy to the defense as well. Especially near the end of games.

                    Heck, consider that if we had a time-out, and ANYONE had noticed Gaither on the field, they COULD have called a time-out. Maybe they did see him. Maybe the Saints saw him as well. But we had no time-outs left.

                    I don't necessarily think that we should take the 5-yard penalty, but at least, one of the areas that Reid and Co. need to improve is plays AFTER the time-out. Because if we don't take the penalty, waste the time-out, punt, and lose a game because we ran out of time-outs, then there's an issue.

                    Look, I am one of the biggest Reid supporters out there, but he certainly CAN improve in a few areas suggested in that article.
                    "You will dress only in attire specially sanctioned by P.E. special services… You are no longer part of the system. You are above the system, over it, beyond it. We're "them." We're "they." We are the Men in Green."

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I'm merely suggesting the 5 yard penalty is a last resort after you put everything in the hands of your best player. You allow McNabb to call a play, audible, try to draw offsides before taking a 5 yard penalty. What is the likelihood exactly of converting on 3rd and 11? It may be greater than 3rd and 16 but if you are playing %'s - it ain't good. Just like throwing on 3rd and inches isn't the high % call. So calling a timeout at that point to run a low % play is not a wise choice.

                      I'm not a Reid basher but I can't defend his clock management. Is clock management the reason we lost these games? Absolutely not. Did it contribute? You bet your ass. Is it one of the the largest areas a coach can actually impact on game day itself? Absolutely.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by stevemc
                        I'm merely suggesting the 5 yard penalty is a last resort after you put everything in the hands of your best player. You allow McNabb to call a play, audible, try to draw offsides before taking a 5 yard penalty. What is the likelihood exactly of converting on 3rd and 11? It may be greater than 3rd and 16 but if you are playing %'s - it ain't good. Just like throwing on 3rd and inches isn't the high % call. So calling a timeout at that point to run a low % play is not a wise choice.
                        Converting 3rd and 11 isn't a sure thing by any means, but it's certainly manageable. 3rd and 16 is a real longshot. I'm sorry, but the difference between the two is absolutely worth a timeout. I'll go so far as to say that it's never better to take the five yards on 3rd down, unless you're so buried already (3rd and 15 or greater) that you already know you're going to be punting.

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                        • #13
                          I would disagree with that IMK. If Andy is going to pass on 3rd and 1, but can't get the play in on time, 3rd and 6 is essentially the same thing to this O.

                          steve is right, AR should give Donovan several options besides wasting a time out. Doesn't mean that you always take the 5 yd penalty, but it a worthwhile consideration. Esp. if you are going to throw the ball 50 yards any way.
                          www.disciplerocks.com

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                          • #14
                            "On a crucial down, the opposition may be in the perfect defense to stop the play you've called" Can't be --- it's all about execution. Okay, okay, easy now, just kidding.

                            Gotta agree with stevemc. DMac is a seasoned, veteran, and at least somewhat smart QB. The stats above show that the rocket science discussed during the timeout hasn't really proved that successful so I give him a shot. Message board chatter early in the year had it that Childress leaving would make things better 'cause there would only be two people talking about what play to call. Obviously it may have helped but two can do as bad as three it seems.
                            I give DMac a bit of a free hand and tell him your parameters, ie don't ever take a penalty at 6 yards or more (or at least something to that effect). Then let him loose. If Andy sees him ready to do something real bad he can still call the TO from the bench
                            Wait until next year is a terrible philosophy
                            Hope is not a strategy
                            RIP

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