The Foles Market is set

[tinopuno]

You can ask, but nobody would have given a 1 and 4 for Bradford at this time that particular year. The Vikings were desperate and out of options. This time of year, teams have free agent and draft options, so if an asking price is too high, they will just say no. If your goal is to maximize the 2018 draft pick return, you have to deal with the offers right now.

Bradford had been injured in the past, but was coming off a perfectly fine mostly-healthy season with the Eagles, so there was some hope he was past those issues. And indeed he played 15 games for the Vikes that first year.

Also, Bradford was traded for future-year draft picks where the positions were not known. That 1st round pick could have easily been say 28, *much* less valuable. Future year picks are generally not as valuable as ones in known positions, for that reason. If the offer is a high second, it's probably not *that* much less.

Additionally, the Eagles themselves thought Bradford was much more valuable than Foles one year earlier. It took Foles *and* a second round pick to land Bradford. So the then-Bradford value was higher. Right now, sure, Bradford has the "degenerative knee" black mark so will be worth much less, and Foles has some high-profile games where he was great (and a couple regular season games where he definitely was not, and worse than Bradford).

It really comes down to how much the Eagles value Foles on the roster, versus having the cap space + picks while having to then fill a backup QB hole (which may be a 3rd QB after Sudfeld). They probably have a price where we may as well just keep him, and take the cap hit (but then maybe have to let someone like Bradham walk instead).

But there's no reason to pull the trigger right now either. Eagles obviously have a high asking price, and teams will come in with lower offers. Part of negotiation. The real question will be what offers are on the table on March 17, i.e. before the $3 million roster bonus is paid, and if the Eagles want to pull the trigger then. After that date we'd only save 2.2 on the cap by trading him, so that consideration gets less valuable, and the return would have to be higher. May as well keep him, and either get a desperate team with an injury in training camp again, or have him on the roster as Wentz insurance (and constant crowd cheers at home games).

Really good stuff F O.

Who needs the Inky or the Daily News?

[Eagle60]

The real question will be what offers are on the table on March 17

I hope a lot of the Irish GMs call Howie a few hours after their parades are over. They more than likely will be much more in a giving mood!

[taz]

You can ask, but nobody would have given a 1 and 4 for Bradford at this time that particular year. The Vikings were desperate and out of options. This time of year, teams have free agent and draft options, so if an asking price is too high, they will just say no. If your goal is to maximize the 2018 draft pick return, you have to deal with the offers right now.

Bradford had been injured in the past, but was coming off a perfectly fine mostly-healthy season with the Eagles, so there was some hope he was past those issues. And indeed he played 15 games for the Vikes that first year.

Also, Bradford was traded for future-year draft picks where the positions were not known. That 1st round pick could have easily been say 28, *much* less valuable. Future year picks are generally not as valuable as ones in known positions, for that reason. If the offer is a high second, it's probably not *that* much less.

Additionally, the Eagles themselves thought Bradford was much more valuable than Foles one year earlier. It took Foles *and* a second round pick to land Bradford. So the then-Bradford value was higher. Right now, sure, Bradford has the "degenerative knee" black mark so will be worth much less, and Foles has some high-profile games where he was great (and a couple regular season games where he definitely was not, and worse than Bradford).

It really comes down to how much the Eagles value Foles on the roster, versus having the cap space + picks while having to then fill a backup QB hole (which may be a 3rd QB after Sudfeld). They probably have a price where we may as well just keep him, and take the cap hit (but then maybe have to let someone like Bradham walk instead).

But there's no reason to pull the trigger right now either. Eagles obviously have a high asking price, and teams will come in with lower offers. Part of negotiation. The real question will be what offers are on the table on March 17, i.e. before the $3 million roster bonus is paid, and if the Eagles want to pull the trigger then. After that date we'd only save 2.2 on the cap by trading him, so that consideration gets less valuable, and the return would have to be higher. May as well keep him, and either get a desperate team with an injury in training camp again, or have him on the roster as Wentz insurance (and constant crowd cheers at home games).

Excellent post and you are right a future 1st is worth less in most cases but it’s still a first. If a team offered a 3rd pick this year and a 1st in 2019 it’s still a 1st and 3rd. In fact I would prefer the first round pick be in 2019. It actually helps the eagles longer term. When Wentz gets his new contract. It would give us another year of a cheaper player further into Wentz career and new contract

The Bradford situation was different in so much as we didn’t have Wentz when the league year began since he was drafted in April. Teams want their QB situation straight as early as possible. They need to add around them.

If there is one thing Howie does really well it’s win trades. I have complete trust that he will handle this correctly and we all will be satisfied by the outcome.
BTW the March 17th date is meaningless. If last year did not prove it nothing will, The cap means nothing if they have pay the 3 million bonus it only ups his value. Over the next week they will clear 20 million or so and be well under the cap. They don’t have many holes so I would not expect any big deals for other teams free agents. I can see Howie doing multiple one year deals with prove it players like he did last year though.

[Eagle60]

If a team wants to "go for it" they should be interested in Cousins or Foles. The Eagles NEVER would have gotten that high amount of draft power for Sam if it weren't a perfect storm with the Vikings losing Bridgewater so late in the preseason. All teams had their rosters settled and Minnesota had a legit shot to win it all and needed a starter 2 weeks before the season started. Who the heck loses their starter 2 weeks before a season starts? What are the odds? Those who are saying that Foles' value will increase as the summer dwindles just aren't thinking this thing through.

[NoDakIggle]

Not sure what is worth.... But worst case after 2018.....you still get a comp pick, not 0.

Probably but there is no guarantee on a comp pick. Depends on a number of factors whether you get a pick or not.

[taz]

Probably but there is no guarantee on a comp pick. Depends on a number of factors whether you get a pick or not.

Exactly. Its about free agents signed vs free agents lost and that has to be true free agents. So signing Torey Smith last year didn't help or hurt the Eagles in that equation but Alshon Jeffrey did etc.

This offseason is the offseason where we are going to get some picks. My feeling is Trey Burton, Nigel Bradham, Beau Allen and Patrick Robinson are going to P.A.I.D. I think the fact that we didn't resign any of them before the end of the season tells us that. Others like Blount, Sproles, Sturgis etc. will get decent contracts. We will sign some free agents but if we sign guys like Tavin Austin who is getting cut it won't count against that or even when Maclin gets cut (I think Maclin is coming back here just a hunch)

[stevemc]

You are right NoDak. The comp pick isn't guaranteed based on Howie's spending. We didn't get any this year but we will probably get quite a few next year because I'm anticipating us losing far more players than we'll sign off the street (at least to significant deals).

The problem with waiting out the market in some of these instances (i.e. Foles) is that the league year starts next week and the Birds need to make some moves to get under the cap. We should be getting some interesting insights of the Birds' intents on players over the next week. Will they restructure Peters? or Kendricks? If they do, we know they are in our plans for '18. They can guarantee both their salary by converting it to a bonus and spreading it out. They may jettison a player or two as well. Interesting times.

[musicman]

Exactly. Its about free agents signed vs free agents lost and that has to be true free agents. So signing Torey Smith last year didn't help or hurt the Eagles in that equation but Alshon Jeffrey did etc.

This offseason is the offseason where we are going to get some picks. My feeling is Trey Burton, Nigel Bradham, Beau Allen and Patrick Robinson are going to P.A.I.D. I think the fact that we didn't resign any of them before the end of the season tells us that. Others like Blount, Sproles, Sturgis etc. will get decent contracts. We will sign some free agents but if we sign guys like Tavin Austin who is getting cut it won't count against that or even when Maclin gets cut (I think Maclin is coming back here just a hunch)

not sure I want Austin or Maclin. Unsure what Austin has left and Maclin is off the field too much

[taz]

One thing on getting "under the cap" don't fall into the trap of using over the cap. Its a good guide but it doesn't take into consideration when bonus are paid. So right now they have it has Foles would give us 5.4 million in dead money if we traded him, however that is if we traded him before March 17th we gain 5.4 million and have 2.2 mill in dead money, its the reverse if we trade him after March 17th.

There are several things they can do in order to gain cap space. They can turn Fletcher Cox Salary which is guaranteed at 11.2 million into a signing bonus and spread that out through the rest of his contract and gain 7 million space. They can do the same with players like Zach Ertz, Brandon Brooks, and Rodney McCloud. It doesn't hurt the player as they get still get the same dollars

[FairOaks]

Excellent post and you are right a future 1st is worth less in most cases but it’s still a first. If a team offered a 3rd pick this year and a 1st in 2019 it’s still a 1st and 3rd. In fact I would prefer the first round pick be in 2019. It actually helps the eagles longer term. When Wentz gets his new contract. It would give us another year of a cheaper player further into Wentz career and new contract

The Bradford situation was different in so much as we didn’t have Wentz when the league year began since he was drafted in April. Teams want their QB situation straight as early as possible. They need to add around them.

If there is one thing Howie does really well it’s win trades. I have complete trust that he will handle this correctly and we all will be satisfied by the outcome.
BTW the March 17th date is meaningless. If last year did not prove it nothing will, The cap means nothing if they have pay the 3 million bonus it only ups his value. Over the next week they will clear 20 million or so and be well under the cap. They don’t have many holes so I would not expect any big deals for other teams free agents. I can see Howie doing multiple one year deals with prove it players like he did last year though.

If they trade Foles before March 18 then he is a big part of that clearing of 20 million. That may require 2-3 teams to get into a bidding war; if Howie can engineer that (and strategic leaks to the press may be part of that), then he may maximize his possible return right here and now. But yes, if we pay Foles that bonus then the trading price goes up. Almost may as well keep him at that point. Though I guess a trade after June 1 would save 4 million on this years cap (as that moves 1.8 in dead money to 2019). Trading him before March 18 saves 5.2 million on this year's cap and that 1.8 currently scheduled for the 2019 cap.

They do need to clear $20 million or so overall. Cap was set at 177.2 million, a bit lower than rumored, so Eagles probably need to clear $10 million before March 14 without benefit of trades -- Celek and Smith are no longer enough by themselves.

I think you are right that Howie will be mostly bargain-basement hunting this year, primarily for players who were cut and would not count against the comp picks.

[taz]

not sure I want Austin or Maclin. Unsure what Austin has left and Maclin is off the field too much

They would both be role players, signed like we signed Blount and Patrick Robinson. 1 yr prove it type deal.

Remember Blount was not the main running back until Sproles went down and even then he was splitting time with Smallwood. Then we brought in Ajayi.

Doug loves to use his hole roster. Right now I am not convinced that either Hollins or Gibson can be WR3. So bringing in a few vets to compete with them make sense.

Austin also bring the returner part to the game. Something we are going to need

[Eagle60]

It's almost useless to try to talk about contracts without software. Not only that how far can you kick the can down the road and still sign Wentz? The Birds shot their wad this year and it paid off but I think that we're going to be in trouble at some point, maybe sooner rather than later. Then again, maybe that salary cap doesn't even exist.

[musicman]

They would both be role players, signed like we signed Blount and Patrick Robinson. 1 yr prove it type deal.

Remember Blount was not the main running back until Sproles went down and even then he was splitting time with Smallwood. Then we brought in Ajayi.

Doug loves to use his hole roster. Right now I am not convinced that either Hollins or Gibson can be WR3. So bringing in a few vets to compete with them make sense.

Austin also bring the returner part to the game. Something we are going to need

I think Austin would need to do a pretty good workout to get a look. He had a remarkable year coming out in 2013, but has been declining ever since. His career avg has dipped to 8.4 per punt return, 18 per KOR and 8.4 YPC. It takes a pretty bad last 3 years to dip those numbers that low. We would be better served getting Brian Mitchell out of retirement and Maclin dropped to 11 YPC with a QB who likes to go downfield. I believe the kids deserve a better look than these 2. Just my opinion

[Eagle60]

I think Austin would need to do a pretty good workout to get a look. He had a remarkable year coming out in 2013, but has been declining ever since. His career avg has dipped to 8.4 per punt return, 18 per KOR and 8.4 YPC. It takes a pretty bad last 3 years to dip those numbers that low. We would be better served getting Brian Mitchell out of retirement and Maclin dropped to 11 YPC with a QB who likes to go downfield. I believe the kids deserve a better look than these 2. Just my opinion

Man I really thought that kid was really going to be a star when he first came out of college. It never happened.

[NoDakIggle]

I think Austin would need to do a pretty good workout to get a look. He had a remarkable year coming out in 2013, but has been declining ever since. His career avg has dipped to 8.4 per punt return, 18 per KOR and 8.4 YPC. It takes a pretty bad last 3 years to dip those numbers that low. We would be better served getting Brian Mitchell out of retirement and Maclin dropped to 11 YPC with a QB who likes to go downfield. I believe the kids deserve a better look than these 2. Just my opinion

Agree. I'm not sure the Eagles need the veteran presence and there are a number of others out there. Not sure what Sproles will bring, Clement seems solid, I think Barner is pretty solid but others may see that differently. Does Hollins and Gibson deserve some looks this year. They kept Gibson around for a reason after a terrible camp. And I think the birds scouts are gong to earn their money this year. They need to have a solid scouting of the round 6, 7, UDFA types in order for the birds to have some cheap labor on the team (although I will say they have some guys like Clement who are not making much and contributing)