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My thought on Hurts

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  • #46
    Originally posted by Eagle60 View Post
    There's a reason that SuperAss is still on the market Juk. He wants to start. Do you really think that a guy with his ego is going to go someplace and sit on a bench?
    Looking at Washington's QB situation, the fact that Rivera wanted no part of him, whatsoever, is very telling.

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    • #47
      Originally posted by Eaglebreath View Post
      Looking at Washington's QB situation, the fact that Rivera wanted no part of him, whatsoever, is very telling.
      I'm sure that Carolina is thrilled to get rid of the "face of the franchise"!
      "Hey Giants, who's your Daddy?"

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      • #48
        Ok pick a different free agent QB. My point was that they need to have a plan to use Hurts beyond just a backup or it was a wasted pick.
        Official Driver of the Eagles Bandwagon!!!
        Bleedin' Green since birth!

        "Do not regret growing older. It is a privilege denied to many." - Mike Willey

        ”Enjoy The Ride!!!” - Bob Marcus

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        • #49
          "I'm trying to give them the benefit of the doubt here, cause I have a lot of doubt on this pick. Like Taz said, not the player, the pick."

          I can buy this. I can buy him coming in for a play here and there; can never have enough Philly Specials. I can buy he will be better than Suds if Carson goes down. But second round isn't backup QB territory-- or it hasn't been historically
          Wait until next year is a terrible philosophy
          Hope is not a strategy
          RIP

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          • #50
            Originally posted by kyfred View Post
            I get a second round pick is expensive from a draft perspective, but this is a back-up QB on the cheap for the next 4 years. Not a lot of guarantied money and far less than what back-ups are making. With a hard cap, the pick is expensive, but there is a lot of flexibility gained in signing known players with known abilities at the NFL level.
            Precisely. I think this factor may be of greater import than the fans and media realize. A second rd pick is a high price in the eyes of many, but if the team values that player's potential contribution as such, then the price is right. Also, any contract for a vet backup would easily eclipse that of a cost-controlled, younger, mobile QB. Perhaps that cost is the one the team seeks to avoid.

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            • #51
              They took Thorson in the 5th round the last time they tried to draft a QB later on. I understand the uproar because that was my first reaction too. Every time the Patriots did it the fans complained about it for months too. The way that Wentz gets pounded I just don't get the uproar. The more that I think about it, the more sense it makes. Who wants another retread QB like Sanchez when Wentz goes down? I don't care what Hurts' trade value is 2 or 3 years from now. I want him to be good and stick around for a long time.
              "Hey Giants, who's your Daddy?"

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              • #52
                Here's something I just read; it's analytics/stat-heavy but makes an interesting argument in favor of the Hurts selection at 53:

                https://www.pff.com/news/draft-jalen...as-a-great-one

                EXCERPT--

                Jalen Hurts wasn't a good pick by the Philadelphia Eagles — he was a great one

                One of the most controversial selections of the 2020 NFL draft was the Philadelphia Eagles taking quarterback Jalen Hurts in the second round with the 53rd overall selection. The Eagles already have Carson Wentz as their putative franchise quarterback, who — at 27 years old and recently signed to a $128 million dollar contract — superficially fits the definition to a tee. Eagles fans and beat writers have a number of emotions on the Hurts pick, mostly ranging from confused to downright disturbed.

                Further complicating feelings around the Hurts pick are comparisons to Taysom Hill and the focus on his role as a high-value backup, like Nick Foles. While Hurts could be a rich-man’s Hill or a stud backup, those should be thought of as secondary and tertiary benefits of the selection.

                The problem with the collective assessment of the Hurts pick is how most view the quarterback position outside of a binary lens: You either have a franchise quarterback or you don’t. This philosophy assumes that if you’re lucky enough to have a solid starter, you should be focused on using free agency and draft capital only to bolster the roster around him. It ignores the fact that a quarterback like Ryan Tannehill can go from franchise-status to a cheap trade chip and back to high-paid starter in the course of a few years. There is uncertainty with every quarterback, though with some more than others.

                Instead of checking a box and assuming the position is filled, teams need to constantly assess what they have at quarterback and how best to increase their chances of having the highest level of play. Far too many front offices are willing to sit and hope that quarterbacks who have shown flashes will turn into consistently elite players, even if the likelihood was never high and is decreasing every season.

                In this analysis, I’ll quickly touch on the mistaken assumptions that the Hurts pick is primarily valuable due to his potential in a Hill role or as a high-end backup, then dig deeper into the proper way to view starting quarterbacks on a spectrum of potential. We'll consider how that lens reveals the necessity to continue taking calculated shots at upgrading the position. But, ultimately, the Hurts acquisition is about optionality at the most important position in football.

                The combination of Hurts’ extensive history as a starter, eye-popping stats and strong grades led a number of different models to conclude that Hurts had the upside to be an elite quarterback. Our college-to-pro forecasts have Hurts as the second-highest projected quarterback, below only Joe Burrow and above Tua Tagovailoa. Our text-analytics on the 2020 quarterback class, which harnessed years of Dane Brugler’s scouting reports, found that Hurts’ closest comps were Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. Three No. 1 overall picks, a No. 2 overall pick and one of the top three best young quarterbacks in the NFL.

                And it’s not only PFF that sees Hurts with elite-quarterback upside. Football Outsiders’ QBASE model found that Hurts was undervalued at an expected draft position of the late-third round. Developed by Andrew Healy — currently the Browns' senior personnel strategist — the model now would have Hurts’ projection only below Burrow's and Herbert's after accounting for his mid-second-round selection.

                It’s not just numbers geeks who see this potential in Hurts. Doug Pederson explained on the Eagles’ post-draft conference call that they see Lamar Jackson as a fair comp for Hurts — and that senior offensive consultant Marty Mornhinweg, who was with the Ravens when they chose Jackson, was influential in the Eagles’ decision to draft Hurts.

                The key to understanding the value of adding a quarterback like Hurts is understanding and estimating and the range of outcomes for quarterbacks. I’ve done work with Bayesian updating to incorporate NFL performance into the expectations and confidence we should have in quarterbacks. The numbers for Wentz show that he'll very likely be at least an average quarterback (92% probability), but less certain he’ll be a top-12 (60%) or top-six quarterback (20%). If you want to sit tight with Wentz assuming that you’ll have above-average performance, that’s a good bet. But average play isn’t the ideal at the position.

                The Hurts acquisition gives the Eagles many options for unforeseeable circumstances. If Wentz fails, they have another quarterback with a great chance of success. If Hurts outplays Wentz in practice and they want to make the switch in a year, the Eagles will likely have strong offers for Wentz in a trade and the cap hit for the combination of Hurts’ contract and Wentz’s dead money will be roughly the same as Wentz’s scheduled 2021 cap hit. If Wentz gets injured, they have a potential high-level backup, good enough to give a team with many pieces in place a chance to win the title.
                And even if Wentz rebounds to 2017 form, becomes an elite quarterback and remains healthy, the Eagles have the option to use Hurts as an enhanced version of Taysom Hill — and to potentially trade him down the road. Teams shouldn’t give themselves only one out at the most important position in the game, and the Eagles have gained insurance and upside with the selection of Jalen Hurts.

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                • #53
                  "The Hurts acquisition gives the Eagles many options for unforeseeable circumstances. If Wentz fails, they have another quarterback with a great chance of success. If Hurts outplays Wentz in practice and they want to make the switch in a year, the Eagles will likely have strong offers for Wentz in a trade and the cap hit for the combination of Hurts’ contract and Wentz’s dead money will be roughly the same as Wentz’s scheduled 2021 cap hit. If Wentz gets injured, they have a potential high-level backup, good enough to give a team with many pieces in place a chance to win the title."

                  This may be the best explanation I have seen. Now I will say the chances that Hurts is better than Wentz I would say pump the brakes on that. Wentz is a top 5 QB in this league. Nothing against Hurts but I think his ceiling is back of the top 10 Donovan McNabb type QB. Nothing wrong with that at all, I just think Wentz is at another level. Now the best ability is availability as Hollis Thomas would say. So if Wentz continues to get banged up every year and they want to move on, they could. If not Hurts in his own right should develop and also get a good return. Either way this is a long term pick not one for 2020 unless of course Wentz gets hurt.
                  Were from Philly F in Philly no one likes us we DON'T CARE!

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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by taz View Post

                    This may be the best explanation I have seen. Now I will say the chances that Hurts is better than Wentz I would say pump the brakes on that. Wentz is a top 5 QB in this league. Nothing against Hurts but I think his ceiling is back of the top 10 Donovan McNabb type QB. Nothing wrong with that at all, I just think Wentz is at another level. Now the best ability is availability as Hollis Thomas would say. So if Wentz continues to get banged up every year and they want to move on, they could. If not Hurts in his own right should develop and also get a good return. Either way this is a long term pick not one for 2020 unless of course Wentz gets hurt.
                    I agree that it sounds like a stretch to think that Hurts will exceed Wentz. He does use an analytic approach in making the argument, but I just can't get there with him. What I do see is the optionality that he argues the team now has. That may be important in a future with more regular season games and only one first-round bye in the playoffs.

                    With Wentz, Hurts, Sudfeld, and to a lesser extent Ward and Tate (if he sticks on the roster) perhaps the Eagles are implementing some sort of platoon system for QBs without having 4 or 5 QB roster spots locked up. While this may not be a guarantee of success, it may increase the probability of getting through the season successfully should the starter (and/or primary backup) go down.

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                    • #55
                      Lots of lots of thoughts going round to justify the move. This one kind of goes right back to the 'Wentz better watch over his shoulder' thought even though it goes on to say options. Of course historically teams with a 'franchise' QB try to grab a great backup in round two or three so the birds are right in line with that......right. Teams look for backup QBs in round 5, 6, 7 hoping to find a diamond; much like NE with Brady. But the birds might be starting a trend here whereby teams look for their backups in round one or two but probably not.
                      I stick by the thought that if Hurts gets on the field this year it will be a good pick. If Hurts is #2 QB and Wentz goes down good pick. If Hurts is #3 QB and doesn't see the field it is not a good pick.
                      Wait until next year is a terrible philosophy
                      Hope is not a strategy
                      RIP

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                      • #56
                        Sometimes I think these analytic folks are the same people who said Hillary had a 99% chance of beating Trump.

                        Look, the Bayesian updating projection is clear here. LOL

                        The question to me is not if the guy is top 5 or top 10, it's can you win a championship with this guy if you surround him with a good team? Is the guy a franchise QB. And, if the answer is yes, then you need to do everything you can to surround the guy with the necessary talent to get it done.

                        The jury is still way out on this pick. But, I still don't like it, and nothing I've heard or read so far trying to explain the logic or reason behind it has changed my mind. This article included.

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                        • #57
                          I will stick to the thought that the salary cap is a bigger issue for the team than the 2nd round pick. Hurts signed for 1.5 per. If he does not work out, there is no real cap hit. If he does, he is one of the cheapest #2 QB in the league during the time when the #1 is making 30+. Hope he works out, but I think he provides a cheap back up plan that allows the money to be spent elsewhere.

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by kyfred View Post
                            I will stick to the thought that the salary cap is a bigger issue for the team than the 2nd round pick. Hurts signed for 1.5 per. If he does not work out, there is no real cap hit. If he does, he is one of the cheapest #2 QB in the league during the time when the #1 is making 30+. Hope he works out, but I think he provides a cheap back up plan that allows the money to be spent elsewhere.
                            This is where I'm at. Not so much now with the Taysom Hill/trickeration angle anymore. It's my belief that the pending expansion of Wentz's cap hit factored significantly into the decision-making process. In taking this route, the team may be able to ensure a quality, cost-controlled backup allowing the redirection of resources elsewhere. Future money is likely the driving factor.

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by Eaglebreath View Post
                              Sometimes I think these analytic folks are the same people who said Hillary had a 99% chance of beating Trump.

                              Look, the Bayesian updating projection is clear here. LOL

                              The question to me is not if the guy is top 5 or top 10, it's can you win a championship with this guy if you surround him with a good team? Is the guy a franchise QB. And, if the answer is yes, then you need to do everything you can to surround the guy with the necessary talent to get it done.

                              The jury is still way out on this pick. But, I still don't like it, and nothing I've heard or read so far trying to explain the logic or reason behind it has changed my mind. This article included.
                              Hell EB, the whole draft was based on that analytics crap. I think the only one that wasn't was Hurts LOL. After reading Baldy's piece I'm really scared that Howie fired another dud. He did bring in 2 great players in Slay and Hargrave in free agency so we are in decent shape there but our DE's suck after Graham and Bennet.
                              "Hey Giants, who's your Daddy?"

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                              • #60
                                We're looking for people that are fundamentally different,” vice president of player personnel Andy Weidl said Saturday night. “The love and passion for football, it's non-negotiable. They're caring, their character, they do the right thing persistently, and they have a relentless playing style that you can see on tape. The motor, it burns hot. You see them finishing plays. They have a team-first mentality. They're selfless individuals.

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