Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

To my good Bud VFK!!

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • To my good Bud VFK!!

    VF, how do you not "set yourself up for a Super Bowl run bust" this season? Vegas has us there, meaning most of the world does:

    ยท Future Odds

    Vegas adjust to Eagles' action
    August 8, 2011
    By Micah Roberts
    VegasInsider.com Share
    The NFL just got through the most intense free-agent signing period in its history. While the initial thought from Las Vegas sports books and bettors alike was that there wouldn't be too many changes on team power ratings based on one or two players being added during the period, one team went from being a possible contender to being the co-favorite to win the Super Bowl.
    The Philadelphia Eagles had odds of 12/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,200) to start the season based on last years, sometimes, dominant performances by super-quarterback Michael Vick. There was always the possibility that the Eagles would upgrade, but it wasn't until they signed three of the top six free agents that made them one of the favorites heading into training camp.

    The Eagles are now 6/1 (Bet $100 to win $600) to win the Super Bowl at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book, thanks in part to the signing of Nnamdi Asomugha, one of the top-three cornerbacks in football.

    Cornerbacks are rarely part of any handicapping or bookmaking equation. Generally, they don't account for much in the weekly odds like a quarterback or other star offensive players do. They are usually considered part of a cohesive unit that continues to prosper, sometimes, even without them. Ultimately, a cornerback's success is dependent on how quick the front seven can get pressure on the quarterback.

    Advertisement



    Deion Sanders raised the bar to what a great shut down corner can do while with the great teams in Dallas and San Francisco. Opponents changed their entire offensive game plans and rarely challenged Sanders' side of the field. Before arriving on the Super Bowl winning teams, Sanders was in Atlanta where the team had moderate success.

    Asomugha is in a similar situation coming from Oakland. He has gotten a tremendous amount of recognition just because of his coverage skills on the league's best receivers even though the Raiders haven't had much success collectively during his tenure. He was great on a team that didn't get the type of pressure on the quarterback requiring him to cover a few seconds longer than most.

    This will be Asomugha's first chance at playing with a very good team and his legacy could be raised to an entire new level because of the expected success, much in the same way Darrelle Revis has gained his while playing for the aggressive Jets defense.

    The Hilton rapidly adjusted their on odds on all the Philadelphia future prices after the additions of Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Cullen Jenkins. In addition to being the co-favorite to win it all, the Eagles are now 13/5 co-favorites (Bet $100 to win $260) to win the NFC and 5/8 favorites (Bet $100 to win $62.5) to win their division.

    MGM Resorts opened their season win totals last Monday with the Eagles posted at 10 wins and immediately bumped the total up a half on the news of the signings.

    "Having a player like that (Asomugha) on the corner should make a big difference because opposing teams will have to account for him in their game plan, especially within their own division," said MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood. "The Eagles needed a player like Asomugha in their division with two pretty good quarterbacks (Eli Manning and Tony Romo) that they'll be playing twice a year."

    The only other team Rood made an air move on the totals, meaning bets didn't force the move, was the Cardinals going from six wins to seven on the news of quarterback Kevin Kolb coming from the Eagles. Bets came quickly on the UNDER settling the number at 6.5.

    It shows how much respect the Las Vegas sports books have for Asomugha's ability that they have moved odds and numbers so much because of his arrival, almost to the same degree a new quarterback has, the player on the field that has the most impact on all spreads and odds.

    Only time will tell how much of an impact Asomugha will have in Philadelphia, but it's a little easier to accept the opinions of the Vegas books over talking heads on TV just because the sports books actually take bets on their opinions. The overall opinion from Las Vegas is that the Eagles will be a major player this season with Nnamdi Asomugha being one of the main reasons.

    SUPER BOWL XLVI GAME LINE
    NFC vs. AFC (PK) TOTAL (46.5)




    ODDS TO WIN 2012 SUPER BOWL XLVI
    Team Odds
    PATRIOTS 6
    PACKERS 6
    STEELERS 10
    RAVENS 15
    JETS 12
    CHARGERS 15
    EAGLES 6
    GIANTS 20
    SAINTS 12
    FALCONS 12
    BEARS 40
    COWBOYS 25
    COLTS 15
    CHIEFS 30
    TEXANS 40
    DOLPHINS 40
    VIKINGS 40
    BUCS 30
    49ERS 40
    RAIDERS 50
    LIONS 30
    TITANS 60
    BROWNS 60
    BENGALS 100
    JAGUARS 60
    REDSKINS 100
    RAMS 60
    CARDINALS 60
    BRONCOS 60
    SEAHAWKS 100
    BILLS 200
    PANTHERS 300




    2012 NFC CONFERENCE
    Team Odds
    PACKERS 13-5
    EAGLES 13-5
    GIANTS 10
    SAINTS 6
    FALCONS 6
    BEARS 20
    COWBOYS 12
    VIKINGS 20
    BUCS 15
    49ERS 20
    LIONS 15
    REDSKINS 50
    RAMS 30
    CARDINALS 30
    SEAHAWKS 50
    PANTHERS 150




    2012 AFC CONFERENCE
    Team Odds
    PATRIOTS 5-2
    STEELERS 9-2
    RAVENS 13-2
    JETS 11-2
    CHARGERS 13-2
    COLTS 13-2
    CHIEFS 15
    TEXANS 20
    DOLPHINS 20
    RAIDERS 25
    TITANS 30
    BROWNS 30
    BENGALS 50
    JAGUARS 30
    BRONCOS 30
    BILLS 100




    NFL DIVISION ODDS


    NFC EAST
    Team Odds
    EAGLES 5-8
    GIANTS 3
    COWBOYS 3
    REDSKINS 22




    NFC NORTH
    Team Odds
    PACKERS 1-2
    BEARS 9-2
    LIONS 4
    VIKINGS 8




    NFC SOUTH
    Team Odds
    FALCONS 6-5
    SAINTS 6-5
    BUCS 4
    PANTHERS 20




    NFC WEST
    Team Odds
    49ERS 17-10
    RAMS 2
    SEAHAWKS 5
    CARDINALS 5-2




    AFC EAST
    Team Odds
    PATRIOTS 5-8
    JETS 8-5
    DOLPHINS 7
    BILLS 30




    AFC NORTH
    Team Odds
    STEELERS 5-6
    RAVENS 6-5
    BENGALS 20
    BROWNS 8




    AFC SOUTH
    Team Odds
    COLTS 5-8
    TEXANS 21-10
    TITANS 8
    JAGUARS 8




    AFC WEST
    Team Odds
    CHARGERS 1-2
    CHIEFS 7-2
    RAIDERS 9-2
    BRONCOS 10
    Last edited by Eagle60; 08-10-2011, 08:50 AM.
    "Hey Giants, who's your Daddy?"

  • #2
    Not sure I understand what Vegas odds have to do with how the Eagles manage their cap or run their team....

    Sure, alot of fans and media see the Eagles as one of the favorites and perceive this to be "all-in" or a huge gamble for one year...the facts are very different as has been posted on this board many times in news reports and posters comments...the Eagles want to win the ring this year, but are also setup for many years to come cap and personnel-wise to win it...they hardly have all their eggs in one basket, not even close.
    Eliminate distractions, create energy, fear nothing, and attack everything.

    -Andy Reid

    Comment


    • #3
      Oh, it's not like they are "ruined" after this year if things don't work out with some players, and our goal. but there is no question they are loading are and going for it on a level they have not done since they have been in charge. And they have even said this is a one time opportunity that will probably never occur again.
      http://shop.cafepress.com/content/global/img/spacer.gifOK, let's try this again...

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Vote for Kalas View Post
        Not sure I understand what Vegas odds have to do with how the Eagles manage their cap or run their team....

        Sure, alot of fans and media see the Eagles as one of the favorites and perceive this to be "all-in" or a huge gamble for one year...the facts are very different as has been posted on this board many times in news reports and posters comments...the Eagles want to win the ring this year, but are also setup for many years to come cap and personnel-wise to win it...they hardly have all their eggs in one basket, not even close.


        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Quote:
        Originally Posted by FRESH
        Vote, I am sure that everyone is rooting for him, and all will agree that he is a hard worker. It's just that this is looking like this is a GO FOR IT - Super Bowl or Bust season we are setting up for, and Castillo is a strange and risky choice primarily due to his lack of experience as a game day DC. Hopefully, we may overcome his learning curve with sheer talent alone.

        Again you've got to get this "SB or bust" mantra out of your head....not everything rides on this year, the Eagles are set up for many years to come too. The world does not end if we fall short this year.


        This is what I was getting at VF. If they don't do it this year, they never will and they know it. I'm not criticizing, just noting. And just about all the betting world agrees.
        "Hey Giants, who's your Daddy?"

        Comment


        • #5
          I disagree completely....they feel an urgency, but have always felt that...do they feel it more now? Sure, as Banner said they've won everything else and its the last hurdle they have to jump. They took advantage of a very unique situation in FA this season and certainly have been aggressive, but again they been aggressive before with FA....yes they are loading up, but again its more to do with the SUPPLY of quality players available at very reasonable costs than it is with some act of desperation on the Eagles part that "this is the year or we are done" type of scenario....they are under the cap next season and the season after that, have most of the roster signed up already and will be able to add more if they fall short this year...this is a extended window, not a 1 year deal from everything I see...

          The Eagles do not care about the "betting world" nor should they...it has nothing to do with their plans. It is only a REACTION to what Vegas and the "experts" perceive to be the Eagles plans....basically they missed the point or are ignorant of how the Eagles operate
          Last edited by Vote for Kalas; 08-10-2011, 08:29 PM.
          Eliminate distractions, create energy, fear nothing, and attack everything.

          -Andy Reid

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Vote for Kalas View Post
            I disagree completely....they feel an urgency, but have always felt that...do they feel it more now? Sure, as Banner said they've won everything else and its the last hurdle they have to jump. They took advantage of a very unique situation in FA this season and certainly have been aggressive, but again they been aggressive before with FA....yes they are loading up, but again its more to do with the SUPPLY of quality players available at very reasonable costs than it is with some act of desperation on the Eagles part that "this is the year or we are done" type of scenario....they are under the cap next season and the season after that, have most of the roster signed up already and will be able to add more if they fall short this year...this is a extended window, not a 1 year deal from everything I see...

            The Eagles do not care about the "betting world" nor should they...it has nothing to do with their plans. It is only a REACTION to what Vegas and the "experts" perceive to be the Eagles plans....basically they missed the point or are ignorant of how the Eagles operate


            We all know how they "operate" VF. And not all of us are that proud of them at times. Of course, we're all thrilled with them right now though! But for me, Fresh and others I think I can say that if they don't do it this year they probably never will. And no, I won't be satisfied with a strong play off performance or even a SB appearance. Just win baby!! I'll tell you this. If Reid can't do it with this team he never will.
            "Hey Giants, who's your Daddy?"

            Comment


            • #7
              Whatever...you do what you've got to do. Since you know the future, you might want to buy a lottery ticket or head to Vegas yourself though...
              Eliminate distractions, create energy, fear nothing, and attack everything.

              -Andy Reid

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Vote for Kalas View Post
                Whatever...you do what you've got to do. Since you know the future, you might want to buy a lottery ticket or head to Vegas yourself though...
                LOL. And if we don't win it this year you know I'll be just as fired up next year too my friend. But while being good every year is nice, I'm sure not satisfied with it.
                "Hey Giants, who's your Daddy?"

                Comment


                • #9
                  I know you're fired up, 60, and I am too...its going to be a special year IMV, but I am realistic enough to know that not everything works out as we wish unfortunately...

                  No one is satisfied with just being consistently good, but that is still the best way to maximize your chances to achieve the goals...to have a chance to win the ring, the team has to make the playoffs and, more likely, win the division & be one of the top 3 seeds...so winning the division is the first goal, getting as good a record as possible for seeding is the next goal and winning the ring is the final goal...

                  I wish we could buy our way to a ring or get a 10 week bye right into the SB, but that ain't reality....
                  Eliminate distractions, create energy, fear nothing, and attack everything.

                  -Andy Reid

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Vote, I don't see where anyone's saying that they are going all in, and it's a one year or bust deal. At least that's not what I'm saying. But even you have to admit that what they've done this year is a far cry from the way they operated early in McNabb's carerr. Back then it was build through the draft, manage the cap, think long term, etc. Now, it's we have a plan, and we're going to attack free agency, and build a team to win a championship right now. They've altered their philosophy. Period. You'd have to be deaf, dumb, and blind not to see the difference. That doesn't mean the team will implode under the cap if they don't win this year. It just means they've changed the way they do things. No wonder McNabb was doing the sour grapes thing. I won't say that if Reid doesn't win it this year he never will. But, I will say that they are trying harder to win now than they did in the past. That doesn't mean they were cheap, or weren't trying to win in the past. But this FA signing frenzy is unprecedented, and definitely represents a change in philosophy. Just look at the Ronnie Brown signing, for example. Early in McNabb's career, they would have been more than content to forgoe signing a vet like that, and going with a draft pick behind the starter.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      EB, I do not see a major shift in philosophy, but rather a 1 year push to take advantage of a once-in-a-lifetime FA situation due to the lockout and CBA renewal. They are still dedicated to building through the draft (huge classes the last 2 years, 11 picks in 2012 already), managing the cap (they are in great shape beyond this year) and thinking long term i.e. maximizing the number of chances the team has to win the ring.

                      What they've done this year in FA is not a far cry except in numbers of players....they've been aggressive in FA before, but were limited since other teams had competitive buying power, FA could shop deals since the time period was much longer, FA could visit alot of teams and pick their location at their own pace and the number of FA was smaller thus increasing demand on the part of the teams i.e. price tags go up.

                      This FA period was different in every regard, it was a buyers market, twice as many players were looking for jobs, timing was very compressed due to the lockout and camps starting, FA could not make alot of visits or shop deals, many teams were not as well positioned as the Eagles thus there was less competition and the Eagles emerged with a large group at very reasonable cost....plus they only owe Nnamdi any gauranteed $$ after this year, everyone else got their $$ and can be extended if they play well or let go if they do not without major cap consequences. In addition, some may provide compensatory picks to the Eagles if they do leave which will help the draft again.

                      Where I will agree is the depth/injury shift...in the past they would have guys like Levens, Freeman, Mitchell etc. as vet depth for RB or WR as an example. Now they are able to get younger & better vets like Brown instead in case an injury happens. However, again Brown is on a 1 year deal so if he plays well they can keep him, but if he doesn't they can let him go and find someone else better.
                      Eliminate distractions, create energy, fear nothing, and attack everything.

                      -Andy Reid

                      Comment

                      Working...
                      X