So I didn't want to put this one in the other thread for it as it probably more negative than most will like. I have a different take on drafts than most. Especially over the last 10-15 years when players come in and start right away. I don't think this draft for where they were drafting and the position they were in will produce enough starters by year 3, For this to be a successful draft and one that based on where they were drafting coming in it should produce 4 starters and at least one pro bowler. I just don' t see it but hope I am dead wrong on this.
So lets get into the players
1. Devonta Smith - No doubt this kid can play on the field. He is a polished route runner, he catches everything in site. Limited injury history (I think he only had a hand injury in college), and production against top college corners (which is huge). He is also only 165lbs at almost 6ft 1. Players of that stature tend to wear down over the course of a year. (DeSean Jackson is a perfect example) He has never played a 16 game schedule yet alone a 17 game schedule plus 3 preseasons games. To justify the trade up and the high pick he must be the number 1 receiver on this team and a Pro Bowl player. Which means 8-10 touches a game 6-7 catches a game. . Can he withstand the 150-200 hits he is going to take over the course of the year?. Can he withstand the blocking assignments? That is the problem with this pick. I think this is the wrong team for him. He needed to go to a team that had other weapons around him. A team that could spot him in and out. I am hope I am dead wrong and he becomes the one player who can do this at his height and weight. I really really do. I seriously doubt he can though. Before everyone says put weight on him. Many players of his statue have tried over the years and some people simply just can not put on weight. (Wish I was one of them ). He played at one of the best schools in college football with state of the art facilities and nutrition programs. Sure a little bump can come from getting to the Nova Care but I think for him to be successful he has to get to 180-185lbs and that weight needs to be muscle. His legs are like toothpicks, in fact he makes Todd Pinkstons legs look like the incredible Hulk.
2. Landon Dickerson - Absolute head scratcher of a pick. Nothing to do with his play on the field, he is an absolute beast when he is on the field. At pick 37 you needed to get a day 1 starter, you are pick 37 for a reason, you team sucked. Why did they suck so much last year, well injuries played a part for sure. But lets say he is completely healthy and say our interior line is completely healthy. He doesn't start over any of those players until one of them retires, or is traded etc. there is no opening for him. This is one of the better interior lines in football. Now lets say Kelce does retire after 2021 season, Dickerson starts at center in 2022. Now you only get three years of the guy on his rookie contract. That is not value at pick 37. Well we need depth. We have depth at guard, for a backup there is nothing wrong with Herbig who actually showed some good promise as a starter last year. This is just a position that didn't need to be addressed at 37.
3. Milton Williams - Kid can absolutely play. But what position does he play in the Pro's. Is he a DE at 280lbs, if so he does not have a quick enough first step and is a 1st and 2nd down run stopper. If he a DT, at that point his first step is workable and he becomes an undersized pass rusher. Now I think he can bulk up some, he seems to have the body type to. In round 3 I am Ok with this pick but again, how much playing does he get? He is a rotational piece and for a team that desperately needed CB and Safety help and in a really bad DT class this move isn't make a ton of sense. We have starters there, we have backups.
4. Zech McPherson - Finally a CB and a decent college one if that. He will most likely be a nickel in the Pro's but in round 4 this is a solid pick. He probably starts day one if nothing more but by default as he immediately becomes the second best corner on the team. I do think he is better than Avonte Maddox who has lost his MOJO.
5. Kenneth Gainwell - Fletcher Cox cousin. Actually I really like this pick. This kid can do it all out of the backfield. He opted out last year so I think that held him down some but RB in general didn't get picked in this draft. You had the two in round 1 but after that it was spotty throughout the draft. Excellent value in round 5. I again question the need here as you have Sanders, Scott and Howard already but am perfectly fine with the pick especially on day 3
6. Marlon Tuipulotu, - Another DT, Look I get the build through the trenches stuff but this is getting out of hand with these clowns running the show. I see nothing in Tuipulotu that says draft pick. He consistently is run out of the play. He did show some pass rush ability but I get it, its round 6. To me this is where you take flyers on LB, Safeties, CB and WR for special teams. I don't think this kid will even make the team.
7. Tarron Jackson, DE - So getting a 4th DE was a sneaky need for this team. Jackson has some upside. Productive college career and knows how to get to the QB. Probably makes the team as a 4th DE. Overall not a bad selection in round 6.
8. JaCoby Stevens, S, LSU - Favorite pick of the draft, he will be a hybrid player in the Gannon scheme He is an in box type player but is very good within there. His issue is he is tight in hips in pass coverage. A this point of the draft to get somebody who can contribute right away on Special teams and could give you snaps on defense is very good value.
9. Patrick Johnson, OLB, Tulane - Saw him more as a 3-4 outside linebacker, so I am not sure of the fit here. I am assuming he is going to slim down a little and play the SAM. Didn't see much tape on him in pass coverage. Looks to be a decent pass rusher. Again at this point of the draft you can't agrue taking guys like this. He should at least play on special teams.
Overall I just don't get this draft. Day 1 Smith definitely starts, McPherson most likely starts but that is by default. By year three if the tea leave align Smith, Dickerson and McPherson are starters, Gainwell is a major contributor and the rest of these guys are situational defensive players. That is the upside of this draft. Is that enough for a 4 win team last year? Probably not. I
Also as the time of this posting the UDFA is underwhelming. Newman is a good camp arm and this point is QB3. I really like Grimes and think he wasn't drafted because a ton of teams WR rooms are filling up with last three WR classes flat out stacked with WR. Grimes probably makes this team. A 4 win team should have been able to sign more and better UDFA guys. Look at Jacksonville's class. The fact they have not signed a single CB or Safety is a flat out crime.
So lets get into the players
1. Devonta Smith - No doubt this kid can play on the field. He is a polished route runner, he catches everything in site. Limited injury history (I think he only had a hand injury in college), and production against top college corners (which is huge). He is also only 165lbs at almost 6ft 1. Players of that stature tend to wear down over the course of a year. (DeSean Jackson is a perfect example) He has never played a 16 game schedule yet alone a 17 game schedule plus 3 preseasons games. To justify the trade up and the high pick he must be the number 1 receiver on this team and a Pro Bowl player. Which means 8-10 touches a game 6-7 catches a game. . Can he withstand the 150-200 hits he is going to take over the course of the year?. Can he withstand the blocking assignments? That is the problem with this pick. I think this is the wrong team for him. He needed to go to a team that had other weapons around him. A team that could spot him in and out. I am hope I am dead wrong and he becomes the one player who can do this at his height and weight. I really really do. I seriously doubt he can though. Before everyone says put weight on him. Many players of his statue have tried over the years and some people simply just can not put on weight. (Wish I was one of them ). He played at one of the best schools in college football with state of the art facilities and nutrition programs. Sure a little bump can come from getting to the Nova Care but I think for him to be successful he has to get to 180-185lbs and that weight needs to be muscle. His legs are like toothpicks, in fact he makes Todd Pinkstons legs look like the incredible Hulk.
2. Landon Dickerson - Absolute head scratcher of a pick. Nothing to do with his play on the field, he is an absolute beast when he is on the field. At pick 37 you needed to get a day 1 starter, you are pick 37 for a reason, you team sucked. Why did they suck so much last year, well injuries played a part for sure. But lets say he is completely healthy and say our interior line is completely healthy. He doesn't start over any of those players until one of them retires, or is traded etc. there is no opening for him. This is one of the better interior lines in football. Now lets say Kelce does retire after 2021 season, Dickerson starts at center in 2022. Now you only get three years of the guy on his rookie contract. That is not value at pick 37. Well we need depth. We have depth at guard, for a backup there is nothing wrong with Herbig who actually showed some good promise as a starter last year. This is just a position that didn't need to be addressed at 37.
3. Milton Williams - Kid can absolutely play. But what position does he play in the Pro's. Is he a DE at 280lbs, if so he does not have a quick enough first step and is a 1st and 2nd down run stopper. If he a DT, at that point his first step is workable and he becomes an undersized pass rusher. Now I think he can bulk up some, he seems to have the body type to. In round 3 I am Ok with this pick but again, how much playing does he get? He is a rotational piece and for a team that desperately needed CB and Safety help and in a really bad DT class this move isn't make a ton of sense. We have starters there, we have backups.
4. Zech McPherson - Finally a CB and a decent college one if that. He will most likely be a nickel in the Pro's but in round 4 this is a solid pick. He probably starts day one if nothing more but by default as he immediately becomes the second best corner on the team. I do think he is better than Avonte Maddox who has lost his MOJO.
5. Kenneth Gainwell - Fletcher Cox cousin. Actually I really like this pick. This kid can do it all out of the backfield. He opted out last year so I think that held him down some but RB in general didn't get picked in this draft. You had the two in round 1 but after that it was spotty throughout the draft. Excellent value in round 5. I again question the need here as you have Sanders, Scott and Howard already but am perfectly fine with the pick especially on day 3
6. Marlon Tuipulotu, - Another DT, Look I get the build through the trenches stuff but this is getting out of hand with these clowns running the show. I see nothing in Tuipulotu that says draft pick. He consistently is run out of the play. He did show some pass rush ability but I get it, its round 6. To me this is where you take flyers on LB, Safeties, CB and WR for special teams. I don't think this kid will even make the team.
7. Tarron Jackson, DE - So getting a 4th DE was a sneaky need for this team. Jackson has some upside. Productive college career and knows how to get to the QB. Probably makes the team as a 4th DE. Overall not a bad selection in round 6.
8. JaCoby Stevens, S, LSU - Favorite pick of the draft, he will be a hybrid player in the Gannon scheme He is an in box type player but is very good within there. His issue is he is tight in hips in pass coverage. A this point of the draft to get somebody who can contribute right away on Special teams and could give you snaps on defense is very good value.
9. Patrick Johnson, OLB, Tulane - Saw him more as a 3-4 outside linebacker, so I am not sure of the fit here. I am assuming he is going to slim down a little and play the SAM. Didn't see much tape on him in pass coverage. Looks to be a decent pass rusher. Again at this point of the draft you can't agrue taking guys like this. He should at least play on special teams.
Overall I just don't get this draft. Day 1 Smith definitely starts, McPherson most likely starts but that is by default. By year three if the tea leave align Smith, Dickerson and McPherson are starters, Gainwell is a major contributor and the rest of these guys are situational defensive players. That is the upside of this draft. Is that enough for a 4 win team last year? Probably not. I
Also as the time of this posting the UDFA is underwhelming. Newman is a good camp arm and this point is QB3. I really like Grimes and think he wasn't drafted because a ton of teams WR rooms are filling up with last three WR classes flat out stacked with WR. Grimes probably makes this team. A 4 win team should have been able to sign more and better UDFA guys. Look at Jacksonville's class. The fact they have not signed a single CB or Safety is a flat out crime.
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