Hypothetical trade/ Draft Thoughts

[taz]

Its getting closer and closer to Christmas morning at least for me I have been studying this class for several seasons and I have to say we are sitting pretty damn good at pick 10.

Pick 10 Scenarios

1. Stay put and draft the best of the following who all should be there. No order of preference
A. Peter Skronoski OT/OG - Best offensive lineman in the draft as far as I am concern. I am not sure he gets past the Bears but if he does, plug and play at RG. Can kick out to RT down the road. Would be an upgrade yes an upgrade over Iaasac who was pretty damn good. Jurgens is an unknown but if Stout thinks he can play RG than he can.

B. Nolan Smith DE/LB - Kid can flat out play. He has the athleticism of Micah Parsons and Reddick. Plug N play on the outside LB opposite of Reddick with Dean in the middle, He can play the pass, he can play the run and flat out get after the QB. I love this kid and think he would be a star here.

C. Brian Bresee DT - Ok this may be a little high but Carter won' t be there and he is the next best pass rushing DT out there and he can flat out get after the QB. Really quick first step. Had some really serious off the field issues dealing with his sister dying of cancer. If the is right he can be really good

D. Myles Murphy DE - Bigger DE who can rush the passer and set the edge on the run. Won't be a fifteen sack guy but he will be a consistent 10 per year with being excellent against the run

E. Joey Porter CB - Lot of talk about Witherspoon and Gonzalez but to me Porter is the best fit. He also has the tape against great receivers like Marvin Harrison Jr. Has the blood lines. BTW I wouldn't be opposed to either Witherspoon or Gonzalez and I think at least one will be gone by 10.


2. Trade Up and get who I think the apple of Howies eye. Jalen Carter And he should be. I also don't think he is getting past Arizona at 3. But.... If he is there at 5 would you consider this trade

10, 30 and a 6th in 2024

5, 83 & 151

Slight overpay by the Eagles depending on which chart you use but its perfectly fine. This kid is worth every penny of it. Check out this link, pretty good overview of Carter and fair

Grab Carter at 5 Then really go BPA the rest of the way. There are going to be as some good DE/S/LB and CB in that 62-94 area. Having three picks within there they could load up. Also getting the extra 5th round pick would be huge. Carter is going to be an absolute stud. His off field stuff concerns me a little but Fletch races cars and I am sure at 21 he didn't always do it legally. Having Fletch here may be a stabilizing influence. Plus Davis is close to Carter.

Seattle would consider this as it give them 6 picks in the first two rounds, 3 in the first, 3 in the second. Of course this would also be predicated on all the QB's being gone by 5,

3. Trade Back - Go back as far as 19. If they do go back to say 19 with Tampa pick up a 1st next year and a 4th this year. This might be the most desirable of all but they probably won't get many opportunities to draft top 10 as long as Jalen is here. Players like Brian Branch, Anton Harrison OT/OG and even Bijan Robinson should be there. Note on Robinson I am not a fan of taking a RB in round 1 but he is really special. If they trade back and gain other resources its probably worth the pick.

At 30 I think there is only one option and that is trade back into the high 2nd round and try and pick up a 4th or even a 3rd depending how far back you trade. If one of Branch, Harrison or Robinson should fall to 30 then go for it. I only have 24 players with 1st round grades and 52 with 2nd round grades. So there is going to be a large group to choose from. If they do it right they can still grab two of them and get another swing on early day 3.

The rest of the draft I think they need to get a WR/S/LB (depending if they take Smith) Offensive line depth (Skronoski or Harrison dependent) More depth along the defensive line. A RB is fine later.

Also one other thing to watch out for. They will have 12 picks in the 24 draft, 1, 2 (2), 2 (3) , 4, 5 (5) 1 (6), (Note these included projected comp picks A 3rd and 3 5th one of the 5th may become a 6th). I think Howie is going to use some of those picks to move around the draft board this year and I wouldn't rule out a draft night deal for a player like Jeremy Chinn where say the Eagles give up their 3rd this year and a 5th next year and get back Chinn and a 4th or something to that effect.

Working on another Mock for the Eagles. Hope to have that out soon. Been really busy with work lately which is great but also doesn't leave me enough time for Da Birds

[NoDakIggle]

I have no problem with that trade; however, if I am going to live up like that I am moving up to grab Anderson. That is predicated on a run of QBs in the top five

[taz]

I have no problem with that trade; however, if I am going to live up like that I am moving up to grab Anderson. That is predicated on a run of QBs in the top five

No problem with Anderson either, Just think DT long term is a bigger need. We still have Sweat and Reddick rushing from the end.

[ThoughtProcess]

I would prefer a trade-back if their target if off the board. If they sit at 10, and Carter is there, I'd have to think they'd pick him.

I did a mock on PFN and managed to come away with Carter (10) and Nolan Smith (30). No trades in Rd.1.

I can see Howie using 2024 picks to move around in this year's draft. Also in the manner that you describe, Taz.

[FairOaks]

Interesting stuff.

Not a huge fan of OT (or even long-term OG) at 10 overall, but if that is BPA, pick and live with it. Bears will almost certainly go OL though. And I'm sure the Eagles would prefer to get Cam Jurgens on the field this year if they could.

Do you think that Nolan Smith and Reddick could play on the field at the same time? They are both hyper-light for pass rushers. Some of those guys have figured out how to rush the passer well (took Reddick a few seasons), but can be more of a liability in the run game. You can hide one of them, but worry about both being on the field. If that's a problem, then it may only be on obvious passing downs, and not sure I like 10 overall for a long-term role player (though obviously would be great Reddick injury protection). At 30 he'd be a steal but doubt he lasts that long.

Myles Murphy sounds like what we hoped Barnett would be, and would make sense. I've seen him go high in some mocks, lower in others. Tyree Wilson always seems to go in mocks before we pick -- do you not like him as much, or figure he'd be gone too.

The car thing(s) with Carter doesn't bother me too badly, as dumb as it was, but the reports of "doesn't love football" and "is great when he wants to be" and that type of off-field stuff bother me a whole lot more. At some point the talent is worth the risk. If he falls to 10, I would not be at all surprised if we roll the dice. But that other stuff... oof.

I'm not sure we have the ammo to trade up -- the trade you suggest is OK by itself maybe, but I think we are looking to try and fill a number of backup jobs this year, so we will more likely want more picks, and trading up with 10 and 30 means the best ways to do that. And if you say there are only 53 players that have at least a second round grade, we'd only be getting one of them instead of two. With any tradeback, don't think I'd want to go beyond that range if we can avoid it. There are some whispers that Seattle is eyeing a QB themselves, but if so that may mean Arizona is sitting there at 5 instead.

If there is a top-rated guy on our board at DE/DT/CB/WR/OT sitting there at 10, I think you take them and deal with the roster overflow. I think DT/DE is, by far, the team's preference. They will play now, and it's a large need next year. DT more this year, and DE more next when both Graham and Barnett are free agents. But if we only have the "very good but some questions", then trading back a bit (still in the teens like you say) would be preferable to me. Someone like Bresee may still be there. Or maybe there is a spot where they are comfortable drafting Robinson.

I'm guessing that Howie will prefer to obtain 2023 picks, and not more 2024, since we already have a lot there. Of course, if a juicy team like Tampa offers us a first rounder, would be hard to say no. But last year we traded a 4th and two 5ths to move from 15 to 13; Howie may be looking for a small trade-back to do the reverse this year, and fill in that gap in the 4-6 rounds some. I think we would like to have better depth at several positions, with OL (multiple picks), DL (probably also multiple), CB/S, LB all being possibilities. The depth in those is now pretty thin. We will definitely be drafting OL somewhat high (top 3 rounds), if not with the 10 overall. They definitely want injury projection now.

What I don't think is that Howie will use 2024 picks to compress into this year. I think he values them more than many other teams (i.e. knocks off fewer "points" for it being a future pick), which makes it easy for him to acquire those picks, but make it much harder to find a trade partner who would value them as much. Not impossible, but he'd probably use those picks more for trades before the season after training camp shows where the holes are.

[NoDakIggle]

Always good takes FO. I also thin Howie would like to keep next years picks and use them as trade bait for 2025 picks rather than use them for this year. Better value usually.
I also don’t think it wise to spend resources to move up and I have been hesitant on Carter all along because of the football
character issues more than the accident issue.
a future replacement for Lane is important but getting gashed by some runs last year is more important to me right now and has greater losses near term. I can very easily see two D picks in round one - a big guy inside and an edge guy. I’m not concerned with Nolan Smith for a pick.

[taz]

As far as Nolan Smith goes. If you go back and watch Georgia games, he actually played much more of that traditional Strong Side linebacker role. So he was out in coverage at times. I think with his speed, lateral ability etc, plus his pass rush and chase down ability he could be an All Pro LB. Desai will play a lot of 5-1-5. Think something like Graham and Reddick on side, Smith & Cox /Sweat on the other with Davis as the anchor in the middle. You better be able to get that pass off quickly. Desai will play tighter coverage than Gannon so I can see a ton of rush QB throws.

Also Smith is really good against the run and a fundamentally sound tackler as is Dean. That is really important. Smith would just give them another moveable piece.

[FairOaks]

I could see Nolan Smith at LB, but don't think I see the Eagles drafting a LB at 10 overall. That will be over a 22 million dollar contract for four years -- they don't like paying proven vets that much at LB. Maybe Desai will adjust their thinking, but letting both LBs from last year walk doesn't seem like it.

[andrewaters]

My only issue with Nolan Smith is I think he is very similar to Reddick. I don't think you can have them on the field at the same time because it makes you potentially light against the run.

[taz]

My only issue with Nolan Smith is I think he is very similar to Reddick. I don't think you can have them on the field at the same time because it makes you potentially light against the run.

They are similar but Smith is more athletic and better in coverage than Reddick. They could play them together in packages. I mean defense has become much more package based anyway now.