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Some good stuff on the Eagles game.
http://footballoutsiders.com/game-pr...d-card-preview
http://footballoutsiders.com/game-pr...d-card-preview
For the Philadelphia-Dallas game, we have a special present for readers. Since the first half of the first Philadelphia-Dallas game was absent from our game charting, I prepared for this preview by charting the first halves of both games, one after the other. To share with everyone a sample of the kind of data we get from charting, we're going to make these spreadsheets available for download absolutely free. Click here to get both first halves of charting, and feel free to make your own observations in the comments.
One fact I'm not sure where to fit in: It is interesting to note that both the Eagles and Cowboys were worse in the red zone
than they were overall, on both sides of the ball.
WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
First of all, I just have to say... Wheeeeeee! Look at that graph. Man, is that a roller coaster ride, or what? Now you see what it is like to be Mike Tanier.
As for when the Eagles have the ball, I don't know which would surprise fans more -- that DVOA ranks the Eagles offense only 10th in the league, or that DVOA ranks the Cowboys defense only 10th in the league. However, the difference between them is that the Cowboys defense has been improving in recent weeks. Through Week 9, Dallas ranked 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 15th in run defense DVOA. Since Week 10, the Cowboys rank ninth in both categories.
Dallas has the league's biggest gap between defense against shotgun formations (6.4 yards per play, 18th in DVOA) and defense against quarterbacks under center (4.3 yards per play, fourth in DVOA). This could be a problem since Philadelphia uses shotgun on an NFC-leading 47 percent of plays. However, the Cowboys defense went against this trend in the two regular-season meetings with Philadelphia, allowing an average of 5.1 yards per play with Donovan McNabb under center but just 4.7 yards per play with him (or Michael Vick) in shotgun.
Still, it might make most sense to spread out the Cowboys defense by throwing to as many different receivers as possible. Based on our DVOA numbers, the Cowboys are much better covering starting wide receivers than they are covering slot receivers, tight ends, or running backs. They had a particularly hard time last week covering tight end Brent Celek. In two games against the Cowboys, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin have combined to catch just 38 percent of passes, each averaging about 40 yards per game. In particular, the Eagles haven't been hitting on those deep strikes to Jackson. In the two Dallas games, McNabb has completed only three of 16 passes to Jackson and Maclin that went 10 or more yards in the air, and the only one longer than 20 yards was a 31-yard completion to Maclin last week in the second quarter. Jackson had a 32-yard catch later on the same drive, but that catch was 8 yards in the air and 24 yards after the catch. In total, Maclin and Jackson have combined for three pass plays longer than 15 yards in two games against the Cowboys. Celek had four pass plays longer than 15 yards just in last week alone, and all the other Eagles have combined for eight pass plays longer than 15 yards in the the two Cowboys games.
If the Eagles are going to send everyone out into patterns, that means they'll have to depend on their five linemen to protect against the Dallas pass rush. Left tackle Jason Peters will be very important, as he'll generally need to take on DeMarcus Ware one-on-one. Peters was injured and missed a few plays in the Week 9 game, and when Todd Herremans moved over to left tackle, he had major problems with Ware. The Eagles helped both Peters and Herremans somewhat by lining up two tight ends on the right side and leaving one in to block, with everyone shifting left and the left guard helping the left tackle. However, that second tight end, Alex Smith, is a receiving-first tight end just like Celek. The Eagles really could have used a blocking-first backup tight end this season.
While the Eagles line has done a good job protecting McNabb, he tends to eat the ball when pressured. Philadelphia ranked second in fewest quarterback hits but 20th in Adjusted Sack Rate. Including plays cancelled by penalty, the average NFL quarterback this season had 10 more quarterback hits than sacks. McNabb took 37 sacks but only 19 quarterback hits after passes. The Cowboys, meanwhile, didn't have quite the pass rush that they had in 2008, dropping from first in Adjusted Sack Rate to 12th.
The Eagles have a very efficient running game, when they feel like using it. Of course, since they're the Eagles, that's not very often. Philadelphia was dead last in the NFL with just 301 running back carries. If the Eagles do want to run, the weakness of the Cowboys run defense is on the offensive right, at least according to our Adjusted Line Yards stats.
There may be a lot of talk in the pregame about how Brian Westbrook has long been the focal point of the Philadelphia offense, but it's hard to tell if the Eagles have really gotten anything out of getting him back from knee injuries and post-concussion syndrome for the last two weeks of the season. Before he missed eight straight games, Westbrook averaged 4.8 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per pass. In the two games since his return, he's averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 2.8 yards per pass. He isn't bringing much to the table that LeSean McCoy doesn't bring as well, and unlike Leonard Weaver he's not a complimentary piece who is unique on the Eagles roster.
One fact I'm not sure where to fit in: It is interesting to note that both the Eagles and Cowboys were worse in the red zone
than they were overall, on both sides of the ball.WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
First of all, I just have to say... Wheeeeeee! Look at that graph. Man, is that a roller coaster ride, or what? Now you see what it is like to be Mike Tanier.As for when the Eagles have the ball, I don't know which would surprise fans more -- that DVOA ranks the Eagles offense only 10th in the league, or that DVOA ranks the Cowboys defense only 10th in the league. However, the difference between them is that the Cowboys defense has been improving in recent weeks. Through Week 9, Dallas ranked 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 15th in run defense DVOA. Since Week 10, the Cowboys rank ninth in both categories.
Dallas has the league's biggest gap between defense against shotgun formations (6.4 yards per play, 18th in DVOA) and defense against quarterbacks under center (4.3 yards per play, fourth in DVOA). This could be a problem since Philadelphia uses shotgun on an NFC-leading 47 percent of plays. However, the Cowboys defense went against this trend in the two regular-season meetings with Philadelphia, allowing an average of 5.1 yards per play with Donovan McNabb under center but just 4.7 yards per play with him (or Michael Vick) in shotgun.
Still, it might make most sense to spread out the Cowboys defense by throwing to as many different receivers as possible. Based on our DVOA numbers, the Cowboys are much better covering starting wide receivers than they are covering slot receivers, tight ends, or running backs. They had a particularly hard time last week covering tight end
Brent Celek. In two games against the Cowboys, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin have combined to catch just 38 percent of passes, each averaging about 40 yards per game. In particular, the Eagles haven't been hitting on those deep strikes to Jackson. In the two Dallas games, McNabb has completed only three of 16 passes to Jackson and Maclin that went 10 or more yards in the air, and the only one longer than 20 yards was a 31-yard completion to Maclin last week in the second quarter. Jackson had a 32-yard catch later on the same drive, but that catch was 8 yards in the air and 24 yards after the catch. In total, Maclin and Jackson have combined for three pass plays longer than 15 yards in two games against the Cowboys. Celek had four pass plays longer than 15 yards just in last week alone, and all the other Eagles have combined for eight pass plays longer than 15 yards in the the two Cowboys games.If the Eagles are going to send everyone out into patterns, that means they'll have to depend on their five linemen to protect against the Dallas pass rush
. Left tackle Jason Peters will be very important, as he'll generally need to take on DeMarcus Ware one-on-one. Peters was injured and missed a few plays in the Week 9 game, and when Todd Herremans moved over to left tackle, he had major problems with Ware. The Eagles helped both Peters and Herremans somewhat by lining up two tight ends on the right side and leaving one in to block, with everyone shifting left and the left guard helping the left tackle. However, that second tight end, Alex Smith, is a receiving-first tight end just like Celek. The Eagles really could have used a blocking-first backup tight end this season.While the Eagles line has done a good job protecting McNabb, he tends to eat the ball when pressured. Philadelphia ranked second in fewest quarterback hits but 20th in Adjusted Sack Rate. Including plays cancelled by penalty, the average NFL quarterback this season had 10 more quarterback hits than sacks. McNabb took 37 sacks but only 19 quarterback hits after passes. The Cowboys, meanwhile, didn't have quite the pass rush that they had in 2008, dropping from first in Adjusted Sack Rate to 12th.
The Eagles have a very efficient running game, when they feel like using it. Of course, since they're the Eagles, that's not very often. Philadelphia was dead last in the NFL with just 301 running back carries. If the Eagles do want to run, the weakness of the Cowboys run defense is on the offensive right, at least according to our Adjusted Line Yards stats.
There may be a lot of talk in the pregame about how Brian Westbrook has long been the focal point of the Philadelphia offense, but it's hard to tell if the Eagles have really gotten anything out of getting him back from knee injuries and post-concussion syndrome for the last two weeks of the season. Before he missed eight straight games, Westbrook averaged 4.8 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per pass. In the two games since his return, he's averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 2.8 yards per pass. He isn't bringing much to the table that LeSean McCoy doesn't bring as well, and unlike Leonard Weaver he's not a complimentary piece who is unique on the Eagles roster.