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Thursday, November 30, 2006
Smith has become complete QB
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By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
A few remaining rivalry games and conference championships will be played this Saturday, which marks the 14th and final weekend of the 2006 college football regular season. With most teams already in the clubhouse, it is now appropriate to take a look at the seniors whose draft value fluctuated the most this fall.
Five most improved
Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal
Hughes has been a playmaker throughout his career, but he took his game to the next level in 2006. The 6-foot senior cover corner finished the regular season with eight interceptions (two were returned for scores), which gives him 15 career picks to date. He is tall, quick and athletic, and he shows outstanding instincts when left alone in man-to-man coverage. Hughes will solidify a spot in the first round if he can improve his 40-yard dash time to the 4.4-second range during postseason workouts.
Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State
Smith's development as a passer over the course of the last year has been astounding. Once considered a run-first dual-threat quarterback, Smith has developed into a patient, poised signal caller that will hang in the pocket and make proper progression reads. His mistakes were kept to a minimum as a senior (30 touchdown passes compared to only five interceptions) and his big-game performances (10-1 as a starter versus top-10 opponents) is difficult to ignore. Smith's marginal height and past character issues still serve as red flags, but I believe Smith has matured enough as a person and player to warrant consideration as early as the second round.
Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue
Spencer has had a monster season in 2006. After combining for 17.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks through his first three seasons, Spencer has already notched 26.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks as a senior. The tweener defensive end/outside linebacker would be an ideal fit as a rush-linebacker in a 3-4 scheme in the NFL. Spencer can solidify a spot in the draft's top two rounds with a strong showing in postseason workouts.
Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Okoye is a 19-year-old rising talent with loads of upside. He is still developing into his body and his pass-rush moves need polishing. However, Okoye displays an impressive blend of size, athletic ability and natural power that could lead to a long career as a disruptive NFL defensive tackle. Okoye has skyrocketed up NFL draft boards as a senior and should be long gone by Round 2.
Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
The Razorbacks have an exceptional tandem of running backs in Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, but it also takes strong blocking up front to churn out 236.6 rushing yards per game (fourth nationally). Ugoh graded out as a late-round prospect prior to this season, but he has shown tremendous improvement in terms of his technique and footwork this fall. If he plays well in Arkansas' final two games and turns in strong postseason workouts, Ugoh could come off the board as high as the second round.
Five biggest free falls
Mason Crosby, PK, Colorado
It's unusual for a kicker to make a big move up or down draft boards, but Crosby is a special case. Entering his senior season, Crosby was considered the best place-kicker prospect since Sebastian Janikowski was selected 17th overall by the Raiders in 2000. He had connected on 11 field-goal attempts of 50-plus yards in the previous two seasons (2004-05), including a 58-yarder in Miami that dispelled "thin air" notions. However, Crosby was unusually inconsistent this fall and finished the 2006 season missing nine of his 28 attempts. Once considered a possible second-round pick, Crosby is in danger of slipping out of the first day of next April's draft.
Kenneth Darby, RB, Alabama
The bar was set high after rushing for 1,000-plus yards in each of the last two seasons, but Darby never got it going as a senior. He limped into his final Iron Bowl 228 yards shy of the 1,000-yard mark, which would have made Darby the first ever Crimson Tide back to eclipse the 1,000-yard rushing mark in three consecutive season. However, he was able to muster only 48 yards on 16 carries in the loss to archrival Auburn. Darby suffered a minor ankle injury in the middle of the season but otherwise his ineffectiveness is difficult to explain. A preseason second-round prospect, Darby's marginal senior season will likely keep him out of Day 1.
Ryan Harris, OT, Notre Dame
Harris has all the physical tools of a starting left tackle in the NFL, including adequate size, quick feet and excellent balance. He entered his senior season as a rising prospect but failed to capitalize on that momentum. In my opinion, Harris is too much of a finesse player and doesn't show enough toughness or explosive power, especially in the run game. A team will be making a mistake if Harris is taken in the top-40 picks of the 2007 draft.
Jason Hill, WR, Washington State
Hill was a bit of an overrated prospect entering his senior season and he proved just that on the field this fall -- even before suffering an ankle injury that kept him out nearly two full games down the stretch. The 6-foot-1, 210-pound receiver possesses adequate-to-good size but he lacks elite speed and still drops too many catchable passes. Several other senior receivers have emerged in 2006 who should be selected ahead of Hill in next April's draft, including Jeff Samardzija (Notre Dame), Aundrae Allison (East Carolina), Dwayne Bowe (LSU) and Andre Caldwell (Florida). And that's not including the handful of first-round junior receiver prospects expected to leave early.
Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida
Thomas was dismissed from the Florida football team for "failing to meet responsibilities and obligations" just one month after he was reinstated from a two-game suspension due to a failed drug test (marijuana). The 6-foot-3, 290-pound defensive tackle was playing the best football of his career prior to the incident. In fact, he was soaring up draft boards and was a virtual lock to be a first-round pick. At this point, however, it would come as no surprise if Thomas' off-the-field problems prevented him from being drafted in the first two rounds.
Most impacted by injuries
1. Michael Bush, RB, Louisville (broken leg)
2. Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn (multiple nagging injuries: knee, ankle, toe, shoulder)
3. Justin Harrell, DT, Florida (torn biceps)
4. Brian Smith, DE, Missouri (broken hip)
5. Tyrone Moss, RB, Miami-FL (lingering knee injury from 2005)
6. Anthony Waters, ILB, Clemson (knee)
7. Isaiah Stanback, QB, Washington (broken foot)
8. Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford (broken foot)
9. DeAndre Jackson, CB, Iowa State (knee)
10. Andrew Carnahan, OT, Arizona State (knee)
Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN Insider.
Smith has become complete QB
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
A few remaining rivalry games and conference championships will be played this Saturday, which marks the 14th and final weekend of the 2006 college football regular season. With most teams already in the clubhouse, it is now appropriate to take a look at the seniors whose draft value fluctuated the most this fall.
Five most improved
Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal
Hughes has been a playmaker throughout his career, but he took his game to the next level in 2006. The 6-foot senior cover corner finished the regular season with eight interceptions (two were returned for scores), which gives him 15 career picks to date. He is tall, quick and athletic, and he shows outstanding instincts when left alone in man-to-man coverage. Hughes will solidify a spot in the first round if he can improve his 40-yard dash time to the 4.4-second range during postseason workouts.
Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State
Smith's development as a passer over the course of the last year has been astounding. Once considered a run-first dual-threat quarterback, Smith has developed into a patient, poised signal caller that will hang in the pocket and make proper progression reads. His mistakes were kept to a minimum as a senior (30 touchdown passes compared to only five interceptions) and his big-game performances (10-1 as a starter versus top-10 opponents) is difficult to ignore. Smith's marginal height and past character issues still serve as red flags, but I believe Smith has matured enough as a person and player to warrant consideration as early as the second round.
Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue
Spencer has had a monster season in 2006. After combining for 17.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks through his first three seasons, Spencer has already notched 26.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks as a senior. The tweener defensive end/outside linebacker would be an ideal fit as a rush-linebacker in a 3-4 scheme in the NFL. Spencer can solidify a spot in the draft's top two rounds with a strong showing in postseason workouts.
Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Okoye is a 19-year-old rising talent with loads of upside. He is still developing into his body and his pass-rush moves need polishing. However, Okoye displays an impressive blend of size, athletic ability and natural power that could lead to a long career as a disruptive NFL defensive tackle. Okoye has skyrocketed up NFL draft boards as a senior and should be long gone by Round 2.
Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
The Razorbacks have an exceptional tandem of running backs in Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, but it also takes strong blocking up front to churn out 236.6 rushing yards per game (fourth nationally). Ugoh graded out as a late-round prospect prior to this season, but he has shown tremendous improvement in terms of his technique and footwork this fall. If he plays well in Arkansas' final two games and turns in strong postseason workouts, Ugoh could come off the board as high as the second round.
Five biggest free falls
Mason Crosby, PK, Colorado
It's unusual for a kicker to make a big move up or down draft boards, but Crosby is a special case. Entering his senior season, Crosby was considered the best place-kicker prospect since Sebastian Janikowski was selected 17th overall by the Raiders in 2000. He had connected on 11 field-goal attempts of 50-plus yards in the previous two seasons (2004-05), including a 58-yarder in Miami that dispelled "thin air" notions. However, Crosby was unusually inconsistent this fall and finished the 2006 season missing nine of his 28 attempts. Once considered a possible second-round pick, Crosby is in danger of slipping out of the first day of next April's draft.
Kenneth Darby, RB, Alabama
The bar was set high after rushing for 1,000-plus yards in each of the last two seasons, but Darby never got it going as a senior. He limped into his final Iron Bowl 228 yards shy of the 1,000-yard mark, which would have made Darby the first ever Crimson Tide back to eclipse the 1,000-yard rushing mark in three consecutive season. However, he was able to muster only 48 yards on 16 carries in the loss to archrival Auburn. Darby suffered a minor ankle injury in the middle of the season but otherwise his ineffectiveness is difficult to explain. A preseason second-round prospect, Darby's marginal senior season will likely keep him out of Day 1.
Ryan Harris, OT, Notre Dame
Harris has all the physical tools of a starting left tackle in the NFL, including adequate size, quick feet and excellent balance. He entered his senior season as a rising prospect but failed to capitalize on that momentum. In my opinion, Harris is too much of a finesse player and doesn't show enough toughness or explosive power, especially in the run game. A team will be making a mistake if Harris is taken in the top-40 picks of the 2007 draft.
Jason Hill, WR, Washington State
Hill was a bit of an overrated prospect entering his senior season and he proved just that on the field this fall -- even before suffering an ankle injury that kept him out nearly two full games down the stretch. The 6-foot-1, 210-pound receiver possesses adequate-to-good size but he lacks elite speed and still drops too many catchable passes. Several other senior receivers have emerged in 2006 who should be selected ahead of Hill in next April's draft, including Jeff Samardzija (Notre Dame), Aundrae Allison (East Carolina), Dwayne Bowe (LSU) and Andre Caldwell (Florida). And that's not including the handful of first-round junior receiver prospects expected to leave early.
Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida
Thomas was dismissed from the Florida football team for "failing to meet responsibilities and obligations" just one month after he was reinstated from a two-game suspension due to a failed drug test (marijuana). The 6-foot-3, 290-pound defensive tackle was playing the best football of his career prior to the incident. In fact, he was soaring up draft boards and was a virtual lock to be a first-round pick. At this point, however, it would come as no surprise if Thomas' off-the-field problems prevented him from being drafted in the first two rounds.
Most impacted by injuries
1. Michael Bush, RB, Louisville (broken leg)
2. Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn (multiple nagging injuries: knee, ankle, toe, shoulder)
3. Justin Harrell, DT, Florida (torn biceps)
4. Brian Smith, DE, Missouri (broken hip)
5. Tyrone Moss, RB, Miami-FL (lingering knee injury from 2005)
6. Anthony Waters, ILB, Clemson (knee)
7. Isaiah Stanback, QB, Washington (broken foot)
8. Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford (broken foot)
9. DeAndre Jackson, CB, Iowa State (knee)
10. Andrew Carnahan, OT, Arizona State (knee)
Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN Insider.
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