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My NFC East Grades

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  • My NFC East Grades

    Dallas Cowboys
    1-26 Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue 57/70
    3-67 James Marten, OT, Boston College 32/50
    4-103 Isaiah Stanback, QB, Washington 40/40
    4-122 Doug Free, OT, N. Illinois 40/40
    6-178 Nick Folk, K, Arizona 10/20
    6-195 Deon Anderson, FB, UConn 11/20
    7-212 Courtney Brown, CB, Cal-Poly 8/10
    7-237 Alan Ball, CB, Illinois 8/10

    Overall: 206/260
    79%
    Summary: Really like the way the Cowboys moved back in the first round and picked up an additional pick in 2008. That could be a very high pick. Also liked the way they moved ahead of Baltimore to get Spencer. Think the Ravens were going to take Spencer so the Cowboys needed to get ahead of them and they did. I am not super high on the Spencer pick, however. They could have had Ben Grubbs to solidify the offensive line or Robert Meachem, since both receivers are on the wrong side of 30. Think Spencer was a luxury pick that is going to struggle against the run. Really disliked the Marten pick, especially with guys like Ryan Harris, Marcus McCauley, Jason Hill, Mike Walker and Charles Johnson all on the board. Those options were all better players and more positions of need. Martens is not a good run blocker and that is what the Cowboys really need help with, especially after signing finesse big-man Leonard Davis. I have no beef with either fourth round pick. Stanback is going to be a great tinker toy that should help the Cowboys score a lot of points and it wouldn’t shock me if he developed into a good NFL QB. Free is more the type of lineman they needed. The Folk pick confuses me because Mason Crosby was far and away the best kicker on the board and they take Folk over him. Think they are going to regret that, especially with the kicking woes the Cowboys have had. The last three picks all could have been signed in free agency. Instead of Anderson they could have added a player that I think will be a great third or fourth corner in Ryan Smith, or a great utility OL in Doug Datish. In the end, this draft is going to come down to Brady Quinn versus Tony Romo versus Anthony Spencer, because the Cowboys could have had Quinn but did what I thought was right and moved back out of the first round. Then moving back to get Spencer was a little confusing to me when they’ve already go players like that on the roster. The experts liked the moved, but I wasn’t sold on it.


    New York Giants
    1-20 Aaron Ross, CB, Texas 55/70
    2-51 Steve Smith, WR, USC 60/60
    3-81 Jay Alford, DT, Purdue 18/50
    4-116 Zak DeOssie, OLB, Brown 40/40
    5-153 Kevin Boss, TE, W. Oregon 20/30
    6-189 Adam Koets, OT, Oregon State 12/20
    7-224 Michael Johnson, SS, Arizona St. 10/10
    7-250 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Marshall 2/10

    Overall: 217/290
    75%
    Summary: Eli Manning has lost several good bodies on the offensive line in the past couple years and also just lost Tiki Barber but the Giants did nothing to replace those players via the draft. Ross is a good player and fills a need, but they possibly could have moved back some and drafted him and picked up another first day pick to get a talented OL. Also Ben Grubbs was available and would have filled a huge void on the right side. I like the Smith and DeOssie picks a lot and think those are definite need/value selections. The Alford pick was terrible. If they wanted to go DL they could have had Tank Tyler or Brandon Mebane at that point. Think they should have gone OL there however. Kevin Boss was also a reach in the fifth round. He is not a great athlete and isn’t a blocker, so why pick him in the fifth round. Koets was an OK pick and they finally do address the OL but Courtney Taylor slid big time and was available and would have been a great value add for them. Michael Johnson is a real find in the final round, but Ahmad Bradshaw is not a special player in any way and has character concerns. If I was Eli Manning, I would have been in the Giants front office demanding they get me an OL to keep me upright because as it stands right now he is really going to take punishment all year long with the current OL and they did nothing in the draft to help him.


    Washington
    1-6 Laron Landry, SS, LSU 70/70
    5-143 Dallas Sartz, OLB, USC 25/30
    6-179 HB Blades, ILB, Pittsburgh 20/20
    6-205 Jordan Palmer, QB, UTEP 10/20
    7-216 Tyler Ecker, TE, Michigan 10/10

    Overall: 135/150
    90%
    Summary: For as few picks as the Redskins had, they did pretty well. Landry was my third ranked player on my board and they got him at six. They passed on trading down which was a smart move because he would have never made it past the Falcons at eight. He will be a long-time starter and Pro Bowler for the Skins and should add a lot of pop to the run defense. I liked the two linebacker picks, especially Blades late because it represents such great value. Sartz was a bit of a reach in the fifth round and with aging corners the Skins could have gone with Tarell Brown who went just a few picks later. I also liked the Ecker pick. Michigan tight ends fair pretty well in the NFL. Palmer was a wasted pick. Chase Pittman was sitting there on the board and should have been the pick because the Redskins need so much help along the defensive line. This was a pretty good draft for a team that devalues the draft and getting Landry over the possible trade for Lance Briggs was definitely the way to go.

    Philadelphia
    2-36 Kevin Kolb, QB, Houston 20/60
    2-57 Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame 54/60
    3-87 Stewart Bradley, SLB, Nebraska 48/50
    3-90 Tony Hunt, RB, Penn State 50/50
    5-159 C.J. Gaddis, FS, Clemson 28/30
    5-162 Ben Celek, TE, Cincinnati 20/30
    6-201 Rashad Barksdale, DB, Albany 20/20
    7-236 Nate Ilaoa, RB, Hawaii 2/10

    Overall: 242/310
    78%
    Summary: The Kolb pick was the worst of the Andy Reid era and the worst pick in an Eagles draft since Jon Harris. I don’t have any problem with taking Kolb, but they took him too high. The Eagles could have had Greg Olsen, Sidney Rice, Dwayne Jarrett, David Harris or Chris Houston at that spot. I understand not going with Brian Leonard there because they were targeting Tony Hunt later on, but to me Kolb could have been had with the second second round selection. I think the collection of players I mentioned earlier will all have better careers than Kolb, especially Harris and Olsen, and all those players could have helped the Eagles in 2007. I’m not a big Abiamiri fan, but I know most experts really liked him. I think it would have been interesting to see if the Eagles would have gone Tim Crowder had he not been picked right before the Eagles picked. I could have made a case for Quentin Moses, Charles Johnson, Buster Davis or my sleeper, Usama Young, at that spot. I think the third round picks were very solid. Hunt was one of the best value picks of the draft and is going to help the team in 2007. Bradley was a great pick, but Anthony Waters are more of a pure inside guy and was available at that spot. Waters is only going to get better the further he gets from his knee injury. Bradley is big and should have a great camp battle with last year’s third-rounder Chris Gocong. Gaddis was a solid pick as was Barksdale who is a real sleeper from a small school and has a background similar to Roderick Hood. I thought the Celek and Ilaoa picks were poor. Celek is not an NFL player and the Birds could have had William Gay who is going to be a great third or fourth corner. They could have also had John Wendling at that spot. Brandon Siler was on the board when they picked Ilaoa and it makes no sense to me how he slid that far. My big question here is why no ILB. I guess they think Tank Daniels or Omar Gaither are going to develop. They could be right because Daniels showed a lot of athletic ability last year and Gaither played well when given the chance. Gaither isn’t big enough to be an every down inside guy though. I do like the fact that they saved money against the cap though by not taking a first rounder.
    You know Darren if you'd have told me 10 years ago that someday I was going to solve the world's energy problems I'd have said your crazy.... now lets drop this big ball of oil out the window.

  • #2
    Oh man...I am so glad AW is back in the fold...good analysis although I think saying Kolb is the worst pick of the Reid era is some serious hyperbole until we know and see more...
    Eliminate distractions, create energy, fear nothing, and attack everything.

    -Andy Reid

    Comment


    • #3
      aw, one, where do you wind up getting your info and two, how do you put your board together?

      How can you say they took him too high? Rumors abound that he was steadily moving up people's draft boards. Especially Miami. But who knows if they had Beck rated higher or not at this point.

      How do you rate a 6th round selection out of ALBANY as a perfect pick? I have no idea. I guess it comes back to my original questions up top.

      Ben Celek will not be an NFL player but he got 20 points out of 30. How does that make sense? Kolb gets less than half of his points, and I haven't heard anywhere that people don't think he can't play.

      I'm not a draft guru, and I really only focused on the Eagles, but Washington can't get 90% with only 5 picks and picking a position that I think isn't as important as others on the field with their #1, even if Landry becomes a very good player. And I do like the Blades pick.

      I appreciate the effort though, it obviously was time consuming. I'm a numb nuts about most of this stuff, but that's why I have questions.

      Comment


      • #4
        Appreciate it VFK. It's nice to be on a board now where my opinion is valued.

        I agree Kolb could be a very good pick, I just think the Iggles are a player or two away and David Harris or Greg Olsen could have helped them win a Super Bowl this year.

        I also agree with AR though that this thing is about being good every year, not just good one year and then you suck for 3 years to get good again.

        I think value wise though Kolb was a very poor pick and not a position of need which is what you HAVE to get with your top pick overall, regardless if it is a second rounder or not.
        You know Darren if you'd have told me 10 years ago that someday I was going to solve the world's energy problems I'd have said your crazy.... now lets drop this big ball of oil out the window.

        Comment


        • #5
          I'm with the Jon Harris comment from a "reach" standpoint.

          The talent side - I'm willing to let Kolb get rolling and see what happens.

          Nice post. Welcome brother.
          Carson Wentz ERA


          NFC East Titles:
          Playoff Appearances:
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          Super Bowl Titles:

          Comment


          • #6
            Andre, as you know so much of this is speculation. Kolb was rated as high as being the #2 QB in the draft, and as low as a late 3rd tounder. Who is right? Time will tell. The thing is, if in fact some other teams were interested in him and would have selected him before Philly's next pick, and they were this high on him, then he's not a poor pick, and FAR from Reids worst pick ever.

            I mean, are we basing this off of draft position vs production? Because McDougle would be hard to top with that criteria. Higher selection, by far, than Kolb who was a second rounder. If Kolb ever does ANYTHING, he's a better pick than McDougle. And how about FredEx? Another 1st round BUST.

            If you are basing the value on the pick versus their perceived pre-draft standing, who's report are you using to call him such a reach?
            http://shop.cafepress.com/content/global/img/spacer.gifOK, let's try this again...

            Comment


            • #7
              AW - great post - appreciate the insight.

              As I've let this settle in - I'm wondering if either training camp trades and/or camp cuts are in our midst. Perhaps a stop gap player at either TE or Safety is still in the offering if a veteran is available. With so many projects and years down the road picks, maybe a win now acquisition is in the offering.

              Comment


              • #8
                3-81 Jay Alford, DT, Purdue 18/50
                Alford from Purdue must've been terrible

                Now Alford from PSU was a nice pass rushing DT, who was always in the pocket as a junior and senior.
                "You will dress only in attire specially sanctioned by P.E. special services… You are no longer part of the system. You are above the system, over it, beyond it. We're "them." We're "they." We are the Men in Green."

                Comment


                • #9
                  Damn, I didn't know that Dallas drafted Courtney Brown.
                  http://shop.cafepress.com/content/global/img/spacer.gifOK, let's try this again...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    This might sound like I should be placed in a mental institution and the wife and I are planning to start a family soon so this may be the last year I do this, but here is how I approach the draft.

                    Every year I do the following leading up to the draft.

                    I read Pro Football Weekly's Draft Preview book.
                    I read Mel Kipers Draft book... which is highly overrated by the way.
                    I do further research on the players on the internet and I watch a ton of college football and have a pretty good memory for players names and how they played in diferent games. I used to take notes during college football games but that got to be too tedious and it took away from the enjoyment of watching the game. Plus, 3 years ago when I got married my wife made fun of me so I stopped.

                    I take all this information and compile an Excel spreadsheet of about 300 players based on a ranking system of 10.0 down to 2.0. Usually I've. got about 40 players in each whole number, meaning I've got 40 players ranked between 9 and 10, 40 from 8 to 9, etc. This is my draft board.

                    After the draft then, I print out each round and each team's selections and then look at where they were picked. Where I had them valued at, and where the experts had them valued at. I do my entire grading system based on value.

                    I assign 70 points for the first round, 60 points for the second, and so on down to 10 points for round seven A great pick like for instance Landry by the Redskins in round one would be worth 70 points. A great pick in the seventh round for instance Brandon Siler is worth 10 points. So, the grading system is weighted heavily to the higher rounds which is important to me because those picks are just more important. When I look at where someone was picked, I also look at who was picked behind them for the next 10 to 15 picks and I look at what position teams drafted. For instance, the Giants need a lot of offensive lineman bodies and they didn't draft that many so to me they get downgraded.

                    Some of you may remember, I used to be a sportswriter and my dream back in my 20s was to be an NFL beat writer so this is what I came up with 13 years ago and I've done it every year.

                    I'm not an expert, I'm just a guy. But I think I do a pretty good job and I've had a lot of people look at my stuff that think I do OK too.

                    I just wanted to answer the questions of how I come to my conclusions.

                    Hope you enjoy.
                    You know Darren if you'd have told me 10 years ago that someday I was going to solve the world's energy problems I'd have said your crazy.... now lets drop this big ball of oil out the window.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Andre, I think you do a GREAT job, and i reall appreciate it. I DO think that a flaw in your system may be your point system for rounds 1-7, however. I mean, I don't know that I agree that a good pick in the first round is worth 7 times as much as a good pick in the 7th round. With the way you have it set up, you could have a so-so 1st round pic that was valued 3.5 times as great as an absolute steal in the 7th. Justsayin'........
                      http://shop.cafepress.com/content/global/img/spacer.gifOK, let's try this again...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Fresh... appreciate the kudos. I based my grading system off one I saw in the sporting news. They gave more points for first day picks than second day picks. It just kind of made sense to me I guess to because those picks are the ones you really have to hit on and if you miss on them you should be more heavily downgraded.

                        A guy like Bardksdale I give a high grade to because they found him, worked him out and pulled the trigger based on what the experts thought his value were worth.

                        I will tell you one thing. My value board is based heavily off of what Pro Football Weekly does. I don't know how many of you are familiar with PFW's Draft Preview but it is far and away the best book out there. It used to be written by Joel Buschbaum, who died tragically of a heart attack back in 2002. Buschbaum lived the NFL and the NFL draft. He was a hermit of sorts but he scouted college talent basically all year long and had thousands of tapes in his apartment when they cleaned it out after his death. A ton of NFL teams reportedly tried to hire him to run their scouting depatment but he always refused. To me, he was the expert, not Kiper.

                        Now PFW's book is written by Nolan Nawrocki who is also very good. I trust there ranking system and I will say they are right way more then they are wrong.
                        You know Darren if you'd have told me 10 years ago that someday I was going to solve the world's energy problems I'd have said your crazy.... now lets drop this big ball of oil out the window.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I've always enjoyed andre's draft work too.

                          But, you know I'm getting to the point where I honestly think you could put all the players names up on a dart board, and throw darts to decide who to pick, and you'd have just as good a chance at hitting on your picks as Mel Kiper, Tom Heckert, or anyone else.

                          You just have to do a good job at getting value with all your picks, and pray like hell your guys can ball at this level.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Good job as always AW, but I believe that you let your emotions affect the grade for Kolb. If he was a reach, I don't think he was a great reach. I really don't think he would have gotten past Miami, and the Eagles felt that he could be a frachise QB. I think 40/60 would be fair. 20/60 means that you think he's 6th round talent. I don't think that's correct.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Great job, Andre!

                              I will always remember you as the guy who touted Brian Westbrook to all of us on the old board long before the draft. I also think it was you who accused me of collusion in our fantasy baseball league, but that is another story.

                              In any case, it is always great to read your reports.

                              Next year, please plan on giving us your thoughts BEFORE the draft.
                              "Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann



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